Cyclist
Risk vs reward: Should Tadej Pogačar ride Paris-Roubaix?
It was a single video posted on social media, but it sent the world wild. There, on the cobbles of the Trouée d’Arenberg, was Tadej Pogačar. Best known for being the hardest section of the men’s Paris-Roubaix, the stretch of pavé is embedded at the heart of the Hell of the North’s mythology. It’s tough, it’s dangerous, it’s the places where countless riders have lost the race, broken bikes and broken bones. It’s the sector that strikes the most fear among the riders. It is Paris-Roubaix. And there was Pogačar on a training ride, making it look tame.
To date, Pogačar has never raced Paris-Roubaix, though he has stated his intention to do so at some point in his career. His video tease begs the question – is this going to be the year? Could he do it? Should he do it?
Pogačar to Roubaix
Pogačar is a natural born winner who wants to win all the big races, whether at the first attempt like the Giro d’Italia or after many like his ongoing quest to win Milan-San Remo.
Paris-Roubaix is one of the oldest cobbled Classics and arguably the most prestigious. It packs in the greatest distance on cobbles – not only that, the 2024 edition boasted the most on the race for 30 years – and fittingly even awards one to the winner too, though whether they’re able to lift it afterwards is sometimes a different matter. The race also adds a unique twist to the finish by being the only road race remaining that finishes on a velodrome.
Despite having never ridden Roubaix, Pogačar is no stranger to cobbles. At the 2023 Tour of Flanders, he attacked on the Oude Kwaremont in the final 20km for victory. He also has previous on Roubaix’s cobbles thanks to the Tour de France, where in 2022, the peloton rode from Lille to Arenberg over 11 cobbled secteurs totalling 19km.
On what was a chaotic day for GC rival Jonas Vingegaard’s Visma-Lease a Bike squad, Pogačar was calm and collected, drilling it on the front, unafraid, taking the day by the horns.
The last two editions of Paris-Roubaix have featured the same 1-2 on the podium – Mathieu van der Poel first, Alpecin-Deceuninck teammate Jasper Philipsen second. Will Pogačar be the one to break the sequence?
Not so fast
Despite his formidable record in pretty much every race he takes on, Grand Tours are the top priority for Pogačar and his UAE Team Emirates team, who have him on a €50 million deal that runs until 2030. While risk-taking is part and parcel of professional cycling, the nature of Paris-Roubaix adds an extra level of risk for those targeting Grand Tour GC success in the months following.
The cobbles are a cruel mistress – punctures and crashes can come almost at random throughout the race. Even for those who manage to stay upright, the relentless battering can lead to severely blistered hands. And that’s when the race takes place in the dry – in wet conditions, the race can be absolute chaos.
Pogačar has seen his Grand Tour ambitions harmed by injury in the Classics before. A crash at Liège-Bastogne-Liège in 2023 left him with a broken wrist, and while he would return to racing two months later to ride the Tour de France, the injury had clearly compromised his preparations and he ultimately finished a distant second behind overall winner Vingegaard.
If in any doubt about the Tour’s importance to Pogačar, here’s what he said to FloBikes that same year: ‘The Tour is the most important race in cycling. Nothing compares to it. For the sponsors they just want to win the Tour. Everybody knows it in the whole world, even in non cycling. Other races cannot compare to the Tour.’
However, he also added that while ‘maybe it costs [me]’ to race the Classics, he does like taking on different challenges.
What’s the verdict?
Was Pogačar’s Arenberg video a sign that he’s planning on racing Paris-Roubaix this year, or was it just an innocent training ride and he was just trolling us, knowing full well the hysteria that posting the clip would create? For us it’s likely a bit of both. Yes, Pogačar should – and almost certainly will – ride Paris-Roubaix at some point. He’s still only 26, though, so has plenty of time on his side. Our bet is he’ll likely skip it for another season or two to sweep up more Grand Tours – he still hasn’t won the Vuelta yet, and he’ll definitely be looking to add to his three Tour wins in the next few years.
But given Paris-Roubaix’s prestige as one of cycling’s greatest races, and Pogačar’s status as one of the greatest racers cycling has seen, you can guarantee he has already picked out a spot on his mantelpiece for a cobblestone.
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