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Promotions and relegations update: Which men’s WorldTour teams are in danger in the UCI rankings?
Like professional football, cycling now uses a promotion and relegation system to decide who receives licences for the top division of pro cycling. The relegation and promotion system is calculated over a three-year period. The current cycle has been running from the beginning of 2023 and will conclude at the end of 2025. Over the three seasons, every team’s UCI points are added together into a rolling leaderboard, which will eventually dictate the future makeup of the UCI WorldTour.
All races in the UCI calendar receive a points classification, from the Tour de France to the San Marinese national championships. The points are then dished out based on stage results, general classification and secondary prizes such as the points jersey.
At the end of the three-year window, the top 18 teams in the UCI rankings will receive a licence for the UCI WorldTour, the top division of professional cycling. The teams placed 19th and below will compete as UCI ProTeams in the second division of pro cycling. At the end of the last relegation cycle, Lotto and Israel-Premier Tech were relegated after having accumulated fewer points than ProTeams Alpecin-Deceuninck and Arkéa-Samsic.
With only a few months left in the current three-year cycle, some teams have already emerged as contenders for relegation, while a couple have all but saved their spot into the world’s biggest races.
How does the relegation system work in cycling?
Before we delve into our relegation candidates, let’s take a moment to remember how it all works.
The promotion/relegation system is decided using UCI points. These can be scored in all professional races, including national championships. Not all races are treated equally, as bigger WorldTour stage races and Classics offer the largest pool of points. These are rewarded for both stages and the general classification. In some races, other classifications, such as the points and the king of the mountains jersey, warrant UCI bonuses.
Unlike in football, the UCI insists on using a three-year window to calculate its points table. Each year, the top 20-ranking riders from each team in the UCI’s individual rider rankings are added to the relegation-promotion standings. The teams that score the 18 best combined scores at the end of the 2023-2025 period will then receive UCI WorldTour licences for the three following seasons (in this instance, 2026-2028).
Although the final scores will be tallied up at the end of 2025, we can still get a glimpse into how each team is faring, based on the two previous seasons’ results and how each squad’s current top 20-ranked riders are getting on.
The post-Giro leaderboard
The graph above shows the combined UCI points scores between 2023 and 6th June 2025. Unsurprisingly, UAE Team Emirates and Visma-Lease a Bike are in the lead, but two ProTeams, indicated in brown, look to be well inside the standings, ensuring a WorldTour future. These are the two former top-division teams: Israel-Premier Tech and Lotto.
There are some pretty serious changes in the standings following the Giro d’Italia. Towards the top, Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe have leapfrogged Alpecin-Deceuninck, who have stalled after a busy Classics campaign. Likewise, Lotto have shed some placings, falling two spots. They skipped the Giro d’Italia, so they missed out on a hefty haul of points there. However, they look to be guaranteed a WorldTour spot in 2026 regardless.
Since our last relegation update, the fight around the relegation zone – which is indicated in the chart by a dotted line – has changed shape. XDS-Astana have continued to rise up the scoreboard. After securing the sixth-largest set of UCI points in the Giro, they are now in seventeenth place in the rankings.
Picnic-PostNL took some time to warm up in 2025. They were looming around the relegation zone when we last looked at the standings in April. They continue to sit close to the drop zone, but a decent points tally from the Giro has kept them alive for now. The same can’t be said for Cofidis, who only scored a couple of hundred points at the Giro d’Italia, mainly courtesy of sprinter Milan Fretin.
After another anonymous Giro, Intermarché-Wanty have now entered relegation discussions. The Belgian team have been lacklustre so far in 2025, with Biniam Girmay missing out on Classics results and a lack of GC stars to rake in points elsewhere.
Who’s in trouble?
Based on the current landscape, there are six teams in the relegation fight – or in the case of Uno X, promotion. The remaining five are Intermarché-Wanty, XDS-Astana, Picnic-PostNL, Cofidis and Arkéa-B&B Hotels. These five squads are existing members of the UCI WorldTour. Out of the six teams mentioned, only three will be handed WorldTour licences at the end of 2026.
The chart above highlights how each of the six squads has performed over the past three seasons – which are the ones that count towards their WorldTour future.
Intermarché led the way for the moment, with a combined total of 23,999 points. They looked safe from relegation at the beginning of 2025, however you can see that they have had a poor first half to the season – as indicated by the slim red slither on their column. In contrast, almost half of XDS-Astana’s points over the past three seasons have come from 2025 alone. Sitting around 800 points behind Intermarché, XDS-Astana have been flying up the table this year, perhaps to a point we could consider safe.
Importantly, Picnic-PostNL and Cofidis are almost neck and neck after the Dutch squad’s strong Giro d’Italia. There are only 200 points between them at the moment – the equivalent of a Grand Tour stage win.
After a swashbuckling start to 2025, Uno X have lost some ground. A sizeable 2,000-point gap has now opened up between themselves and Cofidis, making it increasingly unlikely that the Norwegian team will be promoted at the end of the season. They can have more confidence than Arkéa, however, who sit an almost insurmountable 2,400 points away from the WorldTour cut off.
With all this in mind, let’s dig into our promotion optimists and our WorldTour squads in fierce defence.
Who is in danger of relegation?
Arkéa-B&B Hotels
Currently sitting within the relegation zone, Arkéa-B&B Hotels may have one of the shortest stints in the WorldTour after their promotion at the start of 2023.
Arkéa were among the poorest performers in the 2023 rankings, finishing in 19th place. The squad may have finally bagged a Tour de France stage in 2024, but they stalled in the rankings, finishing in 19th once again at the end of the year. Compiling their 2023 and 2024 point hauls, they sat firmly in the relegation zone coming into the 2025 season.
They began on a rough patch this year, but things are slowly improving for the Breton squad. Before and during the Classics, Kévin Vauquelin appeared to be the only saviour, scoring a big result at La Flèche Wallonne and the Région Pays de la Loire Tour. However, since the Classics came to an end, they have swept up some minor French one-day races and kept in decent positions in WorldTour events. Not quite top tens, but they’re not far off.
Since our last update, Arkéa have also closed the gap to Uno X, however they still remain in 21st place in the combined rankings, three places behind a guaranteed WorldTour spot.
Strengths
Arkéa have been efficient at scoring points in smaller races. They field competitive line-ups for French one-day races and smaller stage races that yield a large amount of UCI points. In 2025, they’ve already claimed two stage races in France, with several stage victories along the way.
Perhaps not in 2025, but over the two previous seasons, they have benefitted from their big hitters. Luca Mozzato’s impressive Classics campaign last year yielded a host of points, while Arnaud Démare has continued to be a reliable force in the sprints on the WorldTour and Coupe de France levels. They’re not alone though. Arkéa have plenty of riders capable of mid-table finishes in one-day races, chiefly Belgian Jenthe Biermans.
Weaknesses
The team have a long-term focus on nurturing talent. They have a development team that has been a fertile ground for transfers. This is good in the long run, but they need short-term answers to stay away from relegation. This wasn’t helped by a tumbleweed transfer window, which saw the team sign few riders to help with damage limitation. While they failed to bring in new talent, some of the squad’s most reliable point scorers also left during the winter.
A big problem here seems to be a lack of momentum. They have started 2025 on the wrong foot, and it’s hard to see where this can be altered in the following months. Needless to say, but it’ll take a big win from Vauquelin to change this.
Relegation risk level: 5/5
Cofidis
Cofidis have been kicking about for a while. For a long time, the team were a tried-and-tested fixture of cycling’s second division. As a result, they received a UCI WorldTour licence in 2020 and duly moved up to the top flight.
Since their promotion – which was decided before the current points system – Cofidis have floated around the bottom quartile of the UCI rankings and currently sit in 19th place after the first two and a half phases of the cycle.
After looking steady during the Classics, Cofidis’s quiet Giro has forced them back into the drop zone. Since their strong early-season period, the wheels seem to be falling off the Cofidis train, with the Grand Tours offering little chance for the team to stand out.
Strengths:
Cofidis brought in some important point-scorers for 2025, following a savvy approach to last winter’s transfer window. Alex Aranburu was a fantastic asset for Cofidis’s WorldTour status. He’s been able to scoop up some key points, as well as a rare WorldTour win for the French squad. New signings Dylan Teuns and Emu Buchmann still have to show their hand in the Grand Tours.
Cofidis also benefit from being French, as the Lille-based team are invited to a plethora of French races. As mentioned, this circuit offers a huge haul of points to be scored. With consistent results in French races they could keep their WorldTour aspirations alive.
Weaknesses:
Like their northern French colleagues at Arkéa, Cofidis lack that star power. The squad has decent talent, but their race results have been a mixed bag over the past two years. They have missed the mark at Grand Tours, relying on Guillaume Martin for top 15 overall and sprint top tens from Bryan Coquard. With Martin out the door, this only makes it harder. We got a glimpse of that at the Giro, in which the squad scored a measly 300 points.
Buchmann may enjoy some solid results in the Grand Tours and stage races to come this summer, but Cofidis will need to stay consistent at the Coupe de France in order to avoid relegation.
Relegation risk level: 4/5
Picnic-PostNL
Picnic-PostNL overperformed in the previous UCI rankings cycle, managing to climb into the top five after the Covid-struck season in 2020. Since 2023, however, the team have struggled to keep up this form. Over the past two seasons they have fallen into the bottom five of the UCI rankings each year.
After floundering at the beginning of the 2025 season, Picnic-PostNL have been picking up steam – perhaps coinciding with the switch from one-day courses to stage races. They scored a decent haul of points at the Giro, both from Casper van Uden’s stage victory and Max Poole’s impressive performances in the mountains. They remain behind XDS-Astana, but the Dutch team have surpassed Cofidis, with a 1,000 point gap now separating the two.
Strengths:
Pincic-PostNL have a strong contingent of young riders. Oscar Onley, Pavel Bittner, Poole and Van Uden have succeeded at the top level in 2024. After a slow start to the cycle in 2023, they have managed to gain momentum and return to winning ways.
To their benefit they have a wide array of talents across different terrains. They boast time-triallists, Classics riders, climbers and importantly sprinters. Casper van Uden and Tobias Lund Andresen have been reliable points scorers over the past couple of months, with the former bagging a significant sum of points at the Giro d’Italia.
Unlike the other teams on this list, Picnic-PostNL have historically succeeded at Grand Tours, winning stages and finishing in the top 15 overall. This was true at the Giro too, when they scored 1,000 points in comparison to Cofidis’s 300. This is crucial for the relegation battle, especially if they stay ahead of the French teams.
Weaknesses:
Picnic-PostNL rode a scaled-back programme during the first half of 2025. They’ve avoided the high points-scoring events on the second or third tier of racing and they fielded weak teams to high-priority WorldTour events like the Spring Classics. That said it seems as though the Grand Tour cycle will help the Dutch team to fight the tide this summer.
With the young nature of this team, they are relatively inexperienced. They are often outmuscled by the super-teams and lack the vast race schedule like the French teams. With Bardet set to retire at the end of next week and Fabio Jakobsen out of action for the foreseeable future, the team’s fate really does rest in these youngsters’ hands.
Relegation risk level: 3/5
Intermarché-Wanty
Up until this spring, very few people considered Intermarché to be at risk of WorldTour relegation. They sailed through the last cycle and it looked like the same was going to happen this year.
Disappointingly though, they have scored just 3,500 points so far in 2025. That’s fewer points than Cofidis, Picnic-PostNL, Astana and Uno X. The only WorldTour team to rack up fewer points is Arkéa-B&B Hotels, who look like frontrunners for relegation at this point.
This often overperforming team looks to be on the downturn, especially in the wake of a mediocre Classics campaign. Its roster lacks any key riders to get them out of this rut, bar Biniam Girmay. To their disadvantage as well, Intermarché hadn’t gone into 2025 with relegation in mind, so a quick change in strategy will be required for the rest of the season.
Strengths
Intermarché are crafty with their race schedule. They sign up for smaller races and often get some decent results at them. That said, most of these opportunities came in the spring, with the busy Benelux-focussed section of the calendar.
Unlike some of the other teams mentioned here, they have a real chance to bag a major WorldTour win through Girmay. Tour stages could be on the cards, but a one-day victory at Bretagne Classic or the Grand Prix Montréal would really help to fend off any further stagnation in the leaderboard.
Weaknesses
We’ve spoken a lot about momentum and how that can motivate a team. Well, Intermarché seem to have none of that. They have lost their buffer to the relegation candidates, without any key wins to discuss from 2025. In fact, they haven’t even bagged a WorldTour victory in 2025.
They seem to be unlikely victims of the relegation battle below them. While XDS-Astana and Picnic-PostNL have soared in points since the beginning of May, Intermarché have stagnated in growth. Damningly, they only received 190 points from the Giro, the lowest out of all the 23 teams that competed.
A similar fate could await at the Tour de France. If Girmay isn’t up there in the sprints, Intermarché have no cards to play in the GC. Girmay hasn’t looked his best so far in 2025, missing out on any big Classics results and failing to score a single win so far this season.
Relegation risk level: 2/5
XDS-Astana
At the beginning of 2025 it looked almost certain that XDS-Astana would face relegation at the end of the season, putting an end to almost two decade-long stint in the sport’s top division. Apart from Mark Cavendish’s Tour de France hurrah, Astana had a challenging 2024 season. They moved deep inside the relegation zone at the end of 2024, sitting in 21st place, overtaken by their sprightly ProTeam rivals.
This season, they’ve had a new lease of life. A cunning shopping spree during the off-season saw them wrangle in some experienced names, including Sergio Higuita, Mike Teunissen and Diego Ulissi, to help score points in 2025. The result of these signings has been staggering, with XDS-Astana now carrying enough momentum to take them comfortably across the line for WorldTour survival. After just six months of racing, they’ve accrued over 9,400 points, better than what they achieved through the whole of 2024.
With momentum on their side and a 1,000-point gap to the relegation zone, XDS-Astana are probably safe.
Strengths
They have a mature roster, with riders filled to the brim with racing know-how. They also have a strong pedigree behind them and staff who know how to win big races. Former WorldTour riders have been brought into the staff room for 2025 and the results have been incredibly positive.
A reshuffled focus on scoring points has also proved fruitful, as they have become mainstays of the top ten rankings in sprints, Classics and mountain stages. They’re also not afraid to back two or more riders in any given race with the goal of scoring even more points. Just take Scaroni and Fortunato’s fabulous Giro. In their maglia azzura quest alone, they gained over 300 points.
Weaknesses
Bearing all this in mind, it’s hard to identify any weaknesses in XDS-Astana’s current trajectory. Having started the season almost 5,000 behind their rivals they have catapulted up the standings and now enjoy a huge buffer from the current relegation zone.
Before the Giro, we might’ve said that the Grand Tours could be a weakness for this team. However they ended up scoring the sixth biggest points haul from the Corsa Rosa, taking home a total of 1,400 points. The Tour de France may bring different fortunes, but at this pace it wouldn’t be a surprise if they manage to snatch a stage win there as well.
Relegation risk level: 1/5
Who is likely to be promoted?
A return to form: Lotto & Israel-Premier Tech
It shouldn’t come as a shock that the two teams that faced relegation in 2022 have learnt from their mistakes. Lotto and Israel-Premier Tech became complacent during the last cycle and now they have bounced back to their former glory to sit in a very comfortable position.
Lotto are currently twelfth in the standings, while Israel-Premier Tech aren’t far behind in fourteenth. With this, it would take quite the blunder for either team to go down. They laid the groundwork during 2023 and 2024 and now a couple of existing WorldTour teams – Jayco-AlUla and Intermarché – sit as a buffer between them and the fierce relegation battle.
They’re both WorldTour teams in practice rather than name already, receiving invites to all WorldTour races as the two top ProTeams, so it makes perfect sense for them to jump back onto the WorldTour level in 2026.
Promotion likelihood: 5/5
Uno-X Mobility
The optimists will be backing Uno-X Mobility to make it into the UCI WorldTour. The Norwegian team is relatively fresh-faced. They emerged after the pandemic as a competitive squad and have made it to the Tour start line in the two recent editions. Their mission statement was initially to make it up onto the WorldTour by 2025. This might be a bridge too far, but the team are only 2,000 points away from making it to the top division.
They were on sensational form during the Spring Classics, even scoring a big victory from Søren Wærenskjold at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. A string of further top tens has helped them remain in the ring and they’re now only a stellar Grand Tour performance away from nearing Cofidis.
If the French teams really waver in the second half of 2025, Uno-X could see the door open to promotion. They currently sit in 20th place and are within touching distance of the WorldTour stragglers. They’ve had a great start to the year and a Tour de France invite could see them make progress, especially if they fight for stages and keep Tobias Johannessen towards the top fifteen in the general classification.
Promotion likelihood: 2/5
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