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Who are the favourites for the men’s Tour de France 2025?
The Tour de France is back, thank god. With the return of the Tour comes predictions, speculation, rumour and guessing games of who will win the 2025 Tour de France. But why stab in the dark? Whether you go by consensus or bookmakers, there are clear favourites to win the famous yellow jersey and clear contenders to either challenge for that final podium spot or take their chance if the top two don’t make it to Paris.
Indeed, Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard lead the charge in victory discussions, with a close fight for the podium expected between the likes of Remco Evenepoel, Primož Roglič, João Almeida and Florian Lipowitz. With only a couple of days to go until the race starts in Lille, the clock is ticking for the favourites to get their act together ahead of the big send-off in northern France.
By merging bookmakers’ consensus and GC record, we’ve considered every genuine contender who could feasibly win the general classification in the men’s Tour de France 2025 and assessed their chances. Consider it a stab in the light. Our own predictions will follow later this week.
Tour de France 2025 favourites
Barring incident, the yellow jersey will be worn by one of two men in Paris. You know them well after watching them clash over the past four Tours.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG)
Since losing the Tour de France in spectacular fashion in 2023, Tadej Pogačar has rarely put a foot wrong. He’s undefeated in stage races, bagged a fair few Monuments and even a world title for good measure. In other words, he is the best rider on the startlist by miles, and his recent form backs this up. A dominant display at last month’s Dauphiné only helped to confirm his red-hot favourite status, with almost every contender left in his wake.
As Jonathan Vaughters bluntly put it in season 3 of Tour de France Unchained, ‘Trying to beat Tadej Pogačar is like throwing yourself against a brick wall.’
Beating Pogačar is no easy feat, especially not in 2025. You can count the number of times that Pogačar has been beaten this year on one hand, if you’re factoring in stages he’s been game to win. Throw in the bona fide UAE Team Emirates mountain crew and the task becomes even more difficult, especially with João Almeida, Adam Yates and newly crowned Belgian champion Tim Wellens on board.
Last year, we saw the world champion put all the lingering questions to bed. Yes, he can handle high altitude. Yes, he can respond to Visma-Lease a Bike. And yes, he can sustain his effort for three weeks. With that, it’s no surprise that the bookies have him down as the overwhelming favourite for yellow.
Rating: 5/5
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
Although Pogačar seems to be the man to beat on paper, you can never discount Jonas Vingegaard, who has been quietly chipping away at altitude since a crash forced him out of Paris-Nice in the Spring.
Despite being a two-time Tour winner, the Danish rider has embraced his underdog status coming into the 2025 race. There’s less pressure on his back, but that doesn’t mean he’s miles behind in terms of his progress. He climbed well at the recent Critérium du Dauphiné and he even managed to beat the Slovenian against the clock for the first time outside of the Tour de France.
Visma-Lease a Bike have a characteristically ferocious roster at this year’s Tour de France too, with several Grand Tour winners to back him up, including the recent Giro champion Simon Yates and former Vuelta winner and loyal lieutenant Sepp Kuss. Count in Wout van Aert and Matteo Jorgenson, and Visma may be just as strong as UAE head-to-head.
Vingegaard will be hoping to continue his upward trajectory against the clock. There’s an individual test in the opening week and a mountain time-trial up to Peyregudes in the second week, which could reap great reward for the Dane. Plus, if you’re looking for historical parallels, we visit several of Vingegaard’s favoured climbs during this year’s race at Hautacam, Mont Ventoux and the Col de la Loze. Vingegaard has been able to put time into Pogačar on all three of these ramps over the past couple of years. Those efforts, on the other hand, are starting to feel like distant memories.
Rating: 4/5
Tour de France 2025 podium contenders
Below Pogačar and Vingegaard sit four riders bidding for the final podium spot. With the white jersey and a place in the top three on the line, the battle for third is proving too close to call.
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep)
Although the overall title may seem a long shot for Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel, the Soudal-QuickStep rider looks like a comfortable bet for the podium. On debut last year, he did just that, and rode into third place with the white jersey on his back.
This year, Evenepoel’s run-up has been patchy. He was forced out of early-season racing after a crash in the winter, before making his return in the Classics, where he picked up a morale-boosting victory at the Brabantse Pijl. Since then, he’s only managed to pick up wins against the clock, but this hasn’t been enough to send him back onto the podium at a stage race. Even at the recent Dauphiné, it looked as though he was lacking some raw power on the uphill drags in the Alps.
He recently returned to altitude before the Belgian national championships, where he finished in second place in the road race behind Tim Wellens. Regardless, his Soudal-QuickStep squad is nowhere near as strong as Visma-Lease a Bike or UAE Team Emirates, so he’ll be required to think outside the box when on the road this July, especially with Mikel Landa sidelined after a crash at the Giro.
There is, however, a unique opening for the Belgian at this year’s Tour de France. Evenepoel has a good shot of adding a yellow jersey to his burgeoning collection during the first week. The time-trial around Caen on Stage 6 offers up a great chance for Remco to go into the lead early. However, keeping it all the way to Paris may be a bit of a stretch for the 25-year-old, who only has one Grand Tour win under his belt.
Rating: 3/5
João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates XRG)
If one GC card wasn’t enough, UAE Team Emirates XRG have another legitimate podium contender in João Almeida. At 26 years of age, the Portuguese rider has been steadily gaining experience at Grand Tours over the past few years, both as a leader and a domestique. This July, he’ll return to his helper role, but that shouldn’t discount him from the podium.
Almeida has the strongest stage race record in 2025 if we’re going by race wins alone. He’s managed to bag three major UCI WorldTour races this year: Itzulia Basque Country, Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse. At the latter, he claimed three stages and overcame a three-minute deficit to take the overall title ahead of French hope Kévin Vauquelin and Scottish prodigy Oscar Onley.
After being separated from Pogačar for most of the season, the two will rekindle their working relationship at the Tour next week. Last year, the Portuguese rider proved a vital asset for his superstar leader in the mountains, even reaching the fourth spot overall while working in his behalf. With better form on his side this year, he may be hoping for a similar result to Adam Yates in 2023, when he climbed onto the final podium after working as a domestique de luxe.
Rating: 3/5
Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
After years of trying to add the Tour de France to his Grand Tour collection, 2025 provides another opportunity for the 35-year-old Slovenian to finally close his turbulent relationship with the Tour de France.
It’s hard, however, to overlook one key issue here. Yes, Roglič has a clumsiness issue when it comes to the Tour de France. Since his second-place finish in 2020, he’s failed to reach the end of a Tour de France, having abandoned three out of three Tours. This isn’t just isolated to France either. Roglič abandoned the recent Giro d’Italia, placing his Tour de France preparation in jeopardy.
The Slovenian was never scheduled to race between the Giro and Tour, but with this grey cloud over his form this year, it’s hard to imagine him reaching the final podium in Paris.
His Red Bull-Bora-Hangrohe team doesn’t look quite as strong as his opponents either. The German squad has fielded a leadout train in support of Jordi Meeus and Danny van Poppel, leaving Roglič with just Florian Lipowitz and Sasha Vlasov for support in the mountains. In an Alps and Pyrenees-filled final two weeks, Roglic may find his wings clipped very quickly.
Rating: 2.5/5
Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
Speaking of Lipowitz, Red Bull Bora-Hansgrohe may have an ace up their sleeve with the young German.
Lipowitz has been in incredible form so far this year, with podium finishes at the Dauphiné and Paris-Nice to his name as well as a top five overall at Itzulia Basque Country. Over the course of the season, we’ve seen that he’s capable of hanging with the best, often profiting from his pragmatic style in the mountains.
The 24-year-old’s steady engine could be the key to unlocking the white jersey, or better: a podium place, much like Geraint Thomas at the 2022 Tour. This is if his team bosses allow him to go for the overall standings. With Roglič on the startline, Lipowitz could be pigeonholed into a domestique role. If so, this would be a real missed opportunity for Red Bull, who have a real star in the making here.
Rating: 2/5
Tour de France 2025 outside bets
At the Tour de France – as with any bike race – anything can happen. We’ve seen plenty of pre-race favourites crash out early on in the past. Although most talk is about ‘the big four’ and their understudies, there are plenty of outsiders who can upset the apple cart at the Tour de France.
Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers)
With a set of reliably consistent Grand Tour results to his name, Ineos Grenadiers’ Carlos Rodríguez will be the squad’s sole leader at the Tour de France – that is if Geraint Thomas decides to park any GC aspirations.
Although he hasn’t stepped on the top step of the podium yet this year, the Spaniard hasn’t finished outside of the top ten at any of the three stage races he’s finished. This includes the recent Critérium du Dauphiné.
Ineos have gone all-out on fielding a strong squad of climbers for Rodríguez, but in reality, they may be handier in hunting stages rather than the podium.
Rating: 1/5
Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious)
It would be rude to bypass any French riders in a list like this. Lenny Martinez, however, is no pity pick. He’s taken a huge leap forward this year, with eyes firmly on a top ten overall at his home race.
Martinez has been a fixture in WorldTour races in 2025, with three stage victories to his name at Paris-Nice, Tour de Romandie and Critérium du Dauphiné – the traditional trinity of pre-Tour warm-up races. In terms of his overall performances, the Bahrain Victorious rider snuck into the top ten at Paris-Nice and managed to fill the runners-up spot at the Tour de Romandie, after losing the race lead on the final day’s time-trial.
Even if the Frenchman fumbles the GC, expect to see him jump into breakaways with the goal of extending his current streak in WorldTour races. The Pyrenean summit finishes on Stages 12 and 14, as well as the Alpine tests on Stages 18 and 19, should play to his strengths as a thoroughbred climber.
Rating: 1/5
Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike)
Visma-Lease a Bike have been very quiet about Simon Yates’s upcoming Tour de France bid. Despite a recent victory at the Giro d’Italia, the Brit has been downplayed by many on the approach to the Grand Départ in Lille, with many questioning whether his best performances have already been and gone. Furthermore, his prospective role as a domestique for Vingegaard could also rule him out of the yellow jersey equation. Rightly so, as he’ll be a key weapon in closing the gap between his leader and Pogačar.
With his fatigue resistance proven at the Giro, Yates may be the thorn in UAE’s side, as Visma-Lease a Bike look to refresh their tactical rulebook coming into the 2025 Tour. Regardless, the final week should suit Yates, with plenty of days in the high mountains on the cards. That said, UAE Team Emirates should still keep a close eye out for the British rider who has so often gone under the radar in big races.
Rating: 1/5
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)
When young Dane Mattias Skjelmose has been racing this year, he’s often been at the front of affairs. He was sitting pretty on the podium of Paris-Nice before crashing out on Stage 7. Once recovered, he hung on to finish within the top five at Itzulia Basque Country before beating Pogačar and Evenepoel at Amstel Gold in April. More crashes and injuries have derailed his Tour preparations, but a recent win at the Andorra Clàssica shows that he’s getting back to his best.
Skjelmose is no stranger to attacking in the mountains, but he’ll have to measure his effort well as the majority of his Lidl-trek team is occupied with rouleurs and leadout men for Jonathan Milan.
Rating: 1/5
Who’s being overlooked?
Nowadays teammates can never be discounted from the GC fight. At last year’s edition, several domestiques ended up in the top ten overall. With this, the likes of Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates XRG), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) are real contenders to reach the top ten once again.
From the other teams, Ben O’Connor (Jayco-AlUla), Felix Gall (Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale) and Oscar Onley (Picnic-PostNL) are among some of the strongest climbers on this year’s startlist. French favourites include the in-form Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels) and Guillaume Martin-Guyonnet (Groupama-FDJ), but that pair may be searching out breakaways rather than the final classification.
In terms of British hopes, Geraint Thomas will be giving the Tour de France one last dig before retiring at he end of the year. Nearing his 40s, a podium bid might be a big ask, but he’d love a hero’s send-off at the race he once claimed back in 2018.
The Cyclist Prediction
Call me a bore, but I can’t see anyone defeating Tadej Pogačar this July.
The Slovenian has looked untouchable on the climbs this year, with his only sign of weakness coming against the clock at the Dauphiné. With only one flat time-trial in this year’s parcours, there are plenty of punchy finales and mountaintop finishes to rectify any losses to Vingegaard there. Especially in an opening week filled with steep finales, Pogačar could even cancel out any doubts as soon as Stage 7.
The interminable streak of mountain stages in weeks two and three does leave me a little worried. Vingegaard has often thrived in these kinds of settings. Stage 18’s 5,000m of elevation gain in particular leaves me a little worried about such a bullish Pogačar prediction. However, if anything goes wrong, João Almeida will be on hand to limit any losses on the Col de la Loze.
As I’ve implied, I reckon Jonas Vingegaard is a shoo-in for second place. As for third, it’s much harder to call. After being disappointed by Evenepoel’s performance at the Dauphiné, I’m starting to believe that Almeida has what it takes to make it onto the podium in Paris, making him the first Portuguese rider in 46 years to reach the top three at the Tour.
Need to know what’s at stake? Read our guide to the Tour de France prize money.
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