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Who are the favourites for Milan-San Remo 2024?
La Primavera, La Classicissma, the first Monument of the season, the Sprinter’s Classic (maybe not anymore), the long one that’s boring for 260km, whatever you want to call it, it’s Milan-San Remo time once again.
The race heads south from Pavia and over the Passo Turchino before following the picturesque Ligurian Riviera west over the famous Cipressa and Poggio climbs before finishing on the Via Roma in San Remo after 288km of racing.
It’s one of the most iconic and oldest races in the calendar, having started in 1907, and has seen some truly special performances over the years.
After Mathieu van der Poel ticked it off his list in 2023, does that open the door for another new winner? Or will Van der Poel stroll to victory now he knows how it’s done?
Here are the bookies’ favourites for the 2024 Milan-San Remo.
Mathieu van der Poel
There’s no doubting Mathieu van der Poel can win Milan-San Remo. He did it last year, so he knows he can do it, and he knows how to do it, can anyone hold his wheel or catch him on the descent? It depends how much he’s willing to risk for a race he’s already won.
The bookmakers have Van der Poel at around 3/1.
Tadej Pogačar
12th, 5th, 4th. That’s Tadej Pogačar’s record at Milan-San Remo so far, with that 12th in 2020, a few weeks before he won his first Tour de France. Pogačar is on a quest to win it all, Grand Tours and Monuments, to solidify himself as the greatest of all time. His commitment to ride the Giro may prevent him from going all in on the Poggio descent, as once he’s ticked that off he won’t need to go back, but the same applies here and he just needs to lay it all on the line once, take the risk and get the job done. He’s capable of it, he wants it, but it won’t be easy.
His odds range from 3/1 to 6/1.
Mads Pedersen
While Pogačar is trying to win the race, Mads Pedersen is one of only a few sprinters capable of winning the Sprinter’s Classic. The Dane is absolutely capable of sticking at the front over the Poggio and there’s no doubt he’ll have one of the strongest kicks of whoever he comes to the Via Roma with. If we’re playing a game of who wants it most, Pedersen’s desire to win a Monument would have him at the top, but would he prefer to save himself for Flanders and Roubaix? Potentially.
He sits between 5/1 and 12/1.
Christophe Laporte
Christophe Laporte is more than a domestique, but Wout van Aert sitting out San Remo leaves the door open for the Frenchman to seize the opportunity to win a Monument, and those opportunities won’t come around often. You can guarantee he gets his best ever result in the race, with his highest placing 13th, but you’d have thought he’d struggle to go solo coming off the Poggio. That being said, he has as good a chance as anyone from a small group sprint.
He’s between 11/1 and 19/1.
Filippo Ganna
Now Filippo Ganna has his enormous Hour record he can focus on winning road races. That’s a scary thought for everyone else in the peloton. Now Ineos Grenadiers are a certified Classics machine rather than one big Tour de France train they’ve got the resources to get Ganna big wins. He was second last year, with a bigger kick after 300km than Van Aert and Pogačar, so his odds for this are astonishingly long. It’s also his home race, that counts for something.
He’s between 7/1 and 20/1.
Outside bets
Of course there are more than five contenders, and it’s not always favourites that win – as demonstrated in recent years by Jasper Stuyven and Matej Mohorič.
Speaking of Mohorič, his odds aren’t dissimilar to Ganna’s, and there are only about two people in the race capable of descending like he did in 2022. One of those is Søren Kragh Andersen, but given he’s a teammate of Van der Poel he’ll be lucky to get his shot. His odds are longer than their other teammate Jasper Philipsen, who would be the favourite if somehow it did come to a bunch sprint.
Other sprinters who could do the job are Biniam Girmay, Caleb Ewan and Jonathan Milan – that’s written in the stars at some point surely?
And descenders to keep an eye on include Julian Alaphilippe and the Ineos pair of former winner Michał Kwiatkowski and Leeds’ own Tom Pidcock.
Other riders the bookies reckon have a good shot are Remco Evenepoel and Arnaud De Lie, who aren’t even going to be racing on the day, so maybe don’t listen to everything they say.
Stayed tuned later this week for the Cyclist team’s predictions
For more of our Classics coverage visit our Classics hub.
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