Cyclist
How to win Paris-Roubaix for dummies
Paris-Roubaix is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get. The Hell of North is one of the most unpredictable races in the cycling calendar, filled with plot twists, potholes and character arcs that develop over the course of the 200-plus kilometre long pavé-scarred profile.
When it comes to winning Paris-Roubaix, we’ve seen riders fly up the road with 50km to go, we’ve seen riders win in a muddy three-man dash to the line, and we’ve even seen Johan Museeuw ride the final 50 glorious metres one-legged.
As cycling fans, we love speculation, over-analysing and spending hours imagining race scenarios. So, let’s look back on every edition of Paris-Roubaix since the turn of the millennium and look at the many ways you can win Paris-Roubaix as we attempt to crack the code of how to win the Queen of the Classics.
Win a group sprint
Key Examples: 2017, 2016, 2003
Percent of Paris-Roubaixs won in a group sprint since 2000: 34.8%
Over one-third of men’s Paris-Roubaixs since the turn of the millennium have been decided in a group sprint – so chances are, you better factor in your sprinting capabilities when considering a dig at Roubaix glory. On top of the sprinting legs, you’ll need bucketloads of self-belief and an intimidating level of physical confidence.
In this scenario, a deadlock on the pavé distils the favourites into a small group of three or more before a collective rush to the line in Roubaix. What awaits can only be described as Paris-Roubaix’s very own Russian Roulette. Take the wrong wheel and you could find yourself boxed out. Lead out the sprint and you’ll be eating wind. You could find yourself lucky enough to receive a magic carpet ride into the final straight.
We saw several group sprints back in the mid-2010s. In 2015, a gaggle of seven riders contested the final sprint for the cobblestone trophy in Roubaix – but a group this large arriving at the Roubaix Velodrome together is rare to say the least. In this age of cycling galacticos and omnipresent Classics stars, it is hard to imagine this scenario in 2024.
However, the most dramatic Paris-Roubaix sprint came in 2016 when the ever-dependable Mat Hayman shocked the sound sprinters of Tom Boonen, Sep Vanmarcke and Edvald Boasson Hagen to take the victory. Whichever side of the adrenaline rush you experience, a group sprint Roubaix finale is certain to guarantee a nail-biter to the end – just make sure that you’re not leading out the sprint.
Win a two-up sprint
Key Examples: 2019, 2018, 2013
Percent of Paris-Roubaixs won in a two-up sprint since 2000: 13.0%
It goes without saying that a two-man sprint has a higher likelihood of victory for a Roubaix contender than a group sprint. However, this situation has an extra dimension – it’s all about the mind games, the on-the-bike psychology.
This cat-and-mouse situation can go either way. The build-up to the final lap around the Roubaix Velodrome provides a key indicator for proceedings. Whether you work with your breakaway companion, try to attack them, or suck their wheel until the final 200m, a two-up sprint can work like a Magic 8 Ball.
That said, it doesn’t take Sigmund Freud to realise that leading out the two-up sprint is disadvantageous. History is not favourable to the brave riders who dare to lead out the sprint inside the Roubaix Velodrome. On the three occasions that the race has been decided between two men (in 2013, 2018 and 2019), the rider leading out the sprint has never won. Once again, never – and I mean never – bet on the man leading out the sprint.
Win solo
Key Examples: 2022, 2012, 2010
Percent of Paris-Roubaixs won solo since 2000: 34.8%
This is the way everyone has won Paris-Roubaix in their dreams. Nobody wants other riders in the background of their mantlepiece Paris-Roubaix victory photo. Although sometimes boring for the TV viewer, these victories always look better in the rearview mirror.
Strength and timing are key in this scenario. You’ve got to be sure of yourself to go long and face an anxious solo ride ahead of the charging group behind. Sometimes, these moves can be teed up by teammates, but often it’s all about the power and composure of the individual up in front.
On average in these scenarios since 2000, the winning solo move in Roubaix has come at 28km to go. However, there is a clearly defined golden zone of attacking between 20-15km to go markers. Breaking away in this phase of the race has paved a cobbled yellow brick road on five separate occasions since the year 2000. This golden zone unsurprisingly corresponds with the final five-star cobble sector of the race, the Carrefour de l’Arbre.
Skewing the average stats are the eternal duo of Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara who both took Paris-Roubaix victories in the early 2010s by attacking over 50km from the finish. The crème de la crème of Paris-Roubaix wins must be granted to Tom Boonen’s solo exploit back in 2012. A week after clinching the gold medal in Flanders, Boonen and team-mate Niki Terpstra tore off the peloton before the Belgian searched for the win solo with 54km to go. Needless to say, no one came close to catching him.
Win with a last-minute attack
Key Examples: 2014
Percent of Paris-Roubaixs won solo since 2000: 4.3%
This will be short and sweet. Since 2000, only one rider has been able to pull off a last-minute attack for the title – Niki Terpstra.
You’ve got to brave to pull this off, because a last-ditch effort could easily be in vain if the group behind swallow you up. As Primož Roglič would say, ‘No risk, no glory, eh?’
The art of the last-minute attack seems to be lost at Paris-Roubaix. Riders are happy to settle for a sprint in the velodrome once the cobblestones have been negotiated. For Niki Terpstra in 2014, an inflated lead group coming into the final 10km provided the perfect chance for the Dutchman to sail away to his first Monument victory.
Mutually Assured Teammate Destruction
Key Examples: 2023, 2011, 2001
Percent of Paris-Roubaixs won by team dominance since 2000: 13.0%
Much like a puppet master, teams can use their strength in numbers and rider versatility to force others into a sense of desperation. Patrick Lefevre’s QuickStep have been the masters of this in the past – emphasis on the past – across the Classics calendar. Strangling the opposition en masse takes a group effort, but its rewards are unrivalled.
Whether it be a numerical advantage in a small lead group, a mini lead-out into the velodrome or a cross-race siege, team strength cannot be underestimated in L’Enfer du Nord. This route to Roubaix glory requires a strong team bond, communication and cunning team directors behind in the service course.
Last year, Alpecin-Deceuninck placed their rivals in a zero-sum game in the final phase of the race. Supported by Gianni Vermeersch as a workhouse-turned-wildcard, Jasper Philipsen as a sure-bet sprinter and Mathieu van der Poel as the Swiss Army knife, the team were given an easy hand once the race came onto the Carrefour de l’Arbre.
Wout van Aert was made to walk the plank as he futilely chased down Van der Poel up front, while the world’s fastest sprinter was placed on his back wheel with an armchair ride to the Roubaix Velodrome. It’s a sticky situation to say the least.
However, nothing quite beats the tyrannical display by Domo–Farm Frites in the 2001 edition of Paris-Roubaix, which saw the squad take four of the top five placings. This included a full sweep of the final podium and a surprise Monument victory for loyal lieutenant Servais Knaven.
Want to know just how likely is that Mathieu van der Poel win’s on Sunday? Read our investigation: The edge of glory: Does history predict a win for Mathieu van der Poel at Paris-Roubaix 2024?
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