Cyclist
What if Euro 2024 was decided by cycling?
Euro 2024 has finally arrived. The beer gardens are filling up, the big-screen TVs are being dusted down and a summer of football awaits. This year, the tournament heads to Germany, with Italy as the reigning champions.
You may be asking ‘Why are you talking about football on a cycling website, Ewan?’ Well, that’s a great question. Today, we’re turning the tables and deciding Euro 2024 through cycling performance.
For this, we take all the qualifying nations from the European Championships of football this year and pick out their star riders. We then place them head to head, from the group stage all the way to the final. We will compare the nations’ GC strength, depth and all-out pace to decipher which team would win a Euro 2024-style road cycling tournament.
Group A: Germany, Scotland, Switzerland and Hungary
Group A is a cakewalk for the Germans. The hosts are held up by a backline including Nico Denz, Nils Politt, Lennard Kämna and Max Walscheid. And never count out all-rounders Maximilian Scachmann and Emanuel Buchmann.
The sprinting pedigree in Germany isn’t quite as solid as it used to be. We are missing the old names of Marcel Kittel and André Greipel from around ten years ago – coincidentally the last time the Germans took home the football World Cup. These days Die Mannschaft has to rely on pace from the likes of Pascal Ackerman and Phil Bauhaus. Could be better, could be worse.
As for Scotland, the two-wheeled Tartan Army has only a handful of professional riders on the men’s side. Like John McGinn, Scotland can rely on Oscar Onley in the mountains. The man from the Scottish Borders has already claimed a UCI WorldTour stage win and just claimed a top ten at the Tour de Suisse. An English-born Scotsman, Tao Geoghegan Hart is the Scott McTominay of the Scottish cycling XI.
The Swiss provide some decent opposition. The time-trialling talismen of Stefan Küng and Stefan Bissegger provide some real strength against the clock. Marc Hirschi is returning to some form after his blistering Indian summer in 2020, and Silvan Dillier always proves a reliable rouleur. Overall, the Swiss punch above their weight – much like the national football team.
The Hungarians round out Group A. The nation played host to the Giro’s Grande Partenza back in 2022 but doesn’t have many pro cyclists. However, Attila Valter of Visma-Lease a Bike holds the fort in the hills. There is a lack of strength in depth beyond Barnabás Péak and Márton Dima, who both fell out of the UCI WorldTour in recent years. The men in red will struggle to leave the group stage.
Final group standings:
- Germany
- Switzerland
- Scotland
- Hungary
Group B: Spain, Croatia, Italy and Albania
Spain have history and pedigree in both cycling and football. Recently, Spanish hopes in both sports have been pinned on a new generation coming through. On the road, this comes down to Carlos Rodríguez and Juan Ayuso. Oier Lazkano has real potential in the Classics – though climbed surprisingly well at the Dauphiné – and Pello Bilbao has an energy similar to Spanish star Xavi. No doubt, Spain are strong and should go into this cycling tournament as a favourite.
Croatia have been missing from the top level of cycling for a while. Robert Kiserlovski provided some hope in the 2010s, managing to slip into the top ten at a couple of Grand Tours. Since then, there has been little success. Bahrain Victorious’s 21-year-old talent Fran Miholjević is a glimmer of hope, but Croatia struggle to come near Italy and Spain.
Italy, as mentioned, are a force to be reckoned with in cycling. Like in football, they’re spoilt for choice. Unlike their defensive footballing style, the Italians in cycling are front-loaded in the mountains and the sprints. Jonathan Milan is a born finisher, and at his towering two-metre height, it’ll be hard to wrestle the ball off him. Giacomo Nizzolo and Damiano Caruso provide a Bonucci/Chiellini throwback, but Italy have talent in every domain. Antonio Tiberi proved that he can work as a GC leader at the Giro, and Filippo Ganna is one of the world’s most talented bike riders.
Now to Albania – one of the weakest European countries in cycling with sparse representation in the sport. That said, Eugert Zhupa rode four Giri d’Italia. He was incognito however, failing to crack the top ten of a stage at any of those races. All in all, Albania are set to get hammered.
Touted as the ‘group of death’ at Euro 2024 this summer, Group B is tough to predict. In a head-to-head, there’s not much to separate the two nations. However, with the class of the Italians in all domains, the Azzuri have to go through as the winners of the group.
Final group standings:
- Italy
- Spain
- Croatia
- Albania
Group C: Slovenia, Denmark, Serbia and England
Chaos erupts at the cycling Euro 2024 in Group C. The opening match sees Slovenia and Denmark take each other on. This would be a match to end all matches, with Vingegaard and Pogačar battling it out. This is the Mbappé vs Messi grand finale of match-ups.
Let’s take a look at Slovenia first. The nation has some real stars, of course with Tadej Pogačar as the frontman. In some respects, Pogačar is the Erling Haaland of the team, standing out among a sea of decent players, with the support of Martin Odegaard in the form of Primož Roglič. The new Bora-Hansgrohe leader can be utilised in a lethal double act upfront, making sure to net countless goals. Though with that comparison would they even qualify for the Euros? Of course they would. While Roglič is more about scoring tap-ins and taking solo glory than assisting his team, let’s not overlook Matej Mohorič. The Milan-San Remo winner is reliable, tactically astute and measured. Add to that a pair of workhorses in Jan Tratnik and Domen Novak and Slovenia are clearly a strong side, though have their limits.
Denmark on the other hand are well-rounded with talent. Vingegaard is a playmaker. Mads Pedersen is an absolute rock within the team. Mattias Skjelmose adds some flare in the mountains. Magnus Cort, Søren Kragh Andersen, Kasper Asgreen and Mikkel Bjerg deliver a steel ring in a back four that can score for themselves.
The three lions aren’t quite as strong as they used to be in cycling. Chris Froome has declined, but the Yates twins now lead the English attack. The brothers are solid, with Adam shining more in recent years. Tom Pidcock is a Jack Grealish figure who can provide other-worldly moments, but may otherwise appear underwhelming. Fred Wright is a solid player but struggles in front of goal and Ethan Hayter takes the Trent Alexander-Arnold role of being an attacking asset that mostly plays at the back of the group. Jai Hindley has a British father so he could declare for England in this fictional world and add an extra hand up top.
Serbia is another Balkan country bare of recent success. Dusan Rajovic is the only Serb on the UCI WorldTour, but he sadly can’t carry the hopes and dreams of the Yugoslav hegemon.
Final group standings:
- Denmark
- Slovenia
- England
- Serbia
Group D: Netherlands, Austria, France and Poland
The Oranje possess some world class talent all over the park. Fabio Jakobsen and Dy,an Groenewegen may not be the best of buddies, like Diogo Jota and Christiano Ronaldo at the last World Cup for Portugal, but their talent can’t be overlooked. Thymen Arensman and Wilco Kelderman are strong in the GC field, but the man to watch here would be Mathieu van der Poel. The Belgian-born Dutch engine would undoubtedly nutmeg and rainbow flick everyone on the pitch, and could prove to be a game changer on the big stage. When the floodlights are on, Van der Poel dominates.
Austria has risen in cycling stock in the past decade. Felix Großschartner and Patrick Konrad lead the GC charge, Marco Haller is an underrated rider, and Felix Gall has been climbing up the ranks over the past 12 months. Overall, the Austrians would have a good shot at getting out of the groups if it weren’t for the strong opposition.
‘Cycling’s coming home’ would be the chant heard from the terraces of French fans. Hosts of the world’s biggest bike race, France offer talent across the board. David Gaudu and Romain Bardet are stalwarts of the GC game at this point. In sprinting, Arnaud Démare and Bryan Coquard are just as experienced on the world stage and can inject some pace into this French lineup. Julian Alaphilippe would be equally swashbuckling on the pitch; he’d be sure to stir up crazy headlines and pull some iconic faces as he aims to roll back the years for Les Blues’ European conquest.
Poland round out Group D with some respectable names. Michał Kwiatkowski acts as the cycling Lewandowski here. He sometimes underwhelms when the pressure’s on but he has some real quality in his back catalogue and can occasionally still turn it on for his team. Rafał Majka’s name also harks back to this Polish golden generation of the 2010s, but he’ll be relied on to do the business here. That said, the squad lacks depth, even if Cofidis’s Stanisław Aniołkowski can rush in to help.
Final group standings:
- Netherlands
- France
- Austria
- Poland
Group E: Belgium, Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine
Belgium is like the Brazil of cycling: historically strong, passionate and disciplined. Fielding an 11-man team for them is a real challenge, but the stars speak for themselves. Remco Evenepoel was, in fact, a football player in his youth. He was scouted for Brussels-based Anderlecht and played in the Belgian national youth team as a young teenager. He will be the totem of the squad. Further down the starting XI, Tim Wellens would be a wise statesman and Tiesj Benoot a run-around midfielder. Jasper Philipsen will be a speedy striker for the squad and Jasper Stuyven could rise to be a boulder in the defensive midfield. Of course, Wout van Aert will prove to be the cycling reincarnation of prime Thomas Müller.
Without Peter Sagan, Slovakia is missing a star. Hopes will be pinned on rising star Martin Svrček of Soudal-QuickStep in the former world champion’s absence.
Romania echo cycling’s Balkan void. There hasn’t been a Romanian on the WorldTour in years and this doesn’t look like it’ll change anytime soon. Grosu and Tvetkov have ridden at top races in the past, but they are only getting older by the year.
Unlike Romania, Ukraine has been more present at the UCI WorldTour level. This is no Ukraine of old, however, with Corratec duo Mark Padun and Andrii Ponomar taking the lead. As monstrous as Padun was for a week in 2021, I do not expect the men from the east to push through into the deep phase of the tournament. In this weak company, however, I do suspect that Ukraine budge through courtesy of their former WorldTour riders.
Final group standings:
- Belgium
- Ukraine
- Slovakia
- Romania
Group F: Turkey, Georgia, Portugal and the Czech Republic
Always the strong underdogs in football, Turkey do not garner the same reputation in international cycling. The nation may play host to a semi-major stage race, but Turkey should not expect to advance in this cycling knockout. Ahmet Örken, the nine-time national champion is the only name that springs to mind, but he is far from a household name.
My cycling knowledge is being tested with Georgia’s cycling history too. The country were heroic in making their way to the real football Euros, but there’s no wonderkid Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in their two-wheeled setup.
Portugal is the only nation in this group to win a Grand Tour. For that, they have a star by their name. João Almeida is the obvious standout name here these days. The UAE Team Emirates rider is a diesel engine on the pitch who can run around for 120 minutes if he needs to. The Oliveira brothers and the young Antonio Morgado add depth to the Portuguese lineup that look set to walk over the weak opponents in this final pool of nations.
The Czech Republic also have some history at the top level. Zdeněk Štybar has flown the Czech flag in recent years but nowadays Jan Hirt, who recently reached the top ten in the Giro, stands out in the lineup. Mathias Vacek is a real talent bursting through at Lidl-Trek, but this Czech team needs time to grow.
Final group standings:
- Portugal
- Czech Republic
- Turkey
- Georgia
Third Place runoff
The European Championships of football provide a second chance for eliminated groups to make the round of 16. For this, the third-placed teams are ranked based on their performance in the group stage and the top four progress. With that noted, we deduced that England, Austria, Scotland and Slovakia should make their way into the knockout rounds.
- England
- Austria
- Scotland
- Slovakia
- Croatia
- Turkey
The round of 16
After the gruelling group stages, we are left with 16 nations. This is where the knockout format begins. It’s simple, if you lose, you’re out. For this round, we’ll rattle through the results (Bold indicates winners of each match),
Germany v Slovenia: Slovenia take an easy victory. Pogačar and Roglič are too strong for the German unit.
Switzerland v Spain: Spain has climbers in abundance. No Swiss time-trial engine can make a Grand Tour podium, sorry.
Italy v Scotland: As much as Tao Geoghegan Hart tries to make a difference, the Scots get steamrolled by Italy’s passione.
Denmark v Austria: I mean, Jonas Vingegaard. That’s all I need to say.
Portugal v England: Adam Yates certainly does not hold back when up against his Portuguese trade teammates.
Netherlands v Ukraine: The Dutch have many WorldTour riders. Ukraine currently has none.
Belgium v Slovakia: Sagan watches on as his national team gets thumped by an in-form Remco Evenepoel.
France v Czech Republic: Vacek lives up to the wonderkid hype, but France have that old-fashioned grinta in them.
The quarter-finals
Slovenia v Italy
This tussle between the Adriatic nations is quite the battle. Slovenia has its star frontline of Pog and Rog but the Italian depth prevails once the likes of Novak and Tratnik are picked apart by Ganna, Milan and co. Gianni Moscon gets a red card, but that’s not enough to turn the tide.
It’s a hard one to call, but I give this one to Italy by a whisker. The Slovenian golden boys have to go shore up their defence if they’re going to make it all the way at the 2026 World Cup.
- Result: Italy win
England v Netherlands
England take on the Dutch in a feisty quarter-final. To me, the Dutch have the edge. England’s GC lineup is stronger, but the Dutch sprinters, Classics riders and puncheurs respond to the Yates’s attack. The men from the ‘home of football’ are sent home and hooliganism rears its ugly head as England fans brawl with the Dutch late into the night. The orange-clad fans have the last laugh, they make it through.
- Result: Netherlands win
Belgium v France
A replay of the iconic 2018 World Cup semi-final, Belgium v France would be a fierce battle. However Wout van Aert pulls out a real performance and Belgium score some ‘worldies’, Evenepoel outclasses David Gaudu and Romain Bardet, and Démare’s pace is no match for Jasper Philipsen. Belgium pick apart France on all terrain, from the mountains to the time-trials.
- Result: Belgium win
Spain v Denmark
Danish starboy Vingegaard breaks through any Spanish competition and he outperforms the youth of Rodríguez and Ayuso. As the football cliché goes, Vingegaard can do it on a rainy night in Stoke. Lazkano shines in opposition, but he can’t hold off the Danish boys on his own. It’s a convincing Danish win.
- Result: Denmark win
The semi-finals
Italy v Netherlands
Italy were lucky to defeat Slovenia in the quarter-finals, but here they are outclassed by the Dutch. Milan’s menacing speed is matched by Jakobsen and Groenewegen, who decide to finally get their act together and work as a team. Arensman outshines Caruso and Tiberi while Matteo Trentin and Alberto Bettiol’s Classics legs are humbled by the phenom Mathieu van der Poel and his lanky teammate Dylan van Baarle.
- Result: Netherlands win
Belgium v Denmark
The high-morale Scandinavians meet their match in Belgium. Vingegaard has proved time and time again to be stronger and more reliable than Evenepoel, but Mads Pedersen struggles to match the Swiss army knife of Wout van Aert.
This match-up goes to penalties and it’s Jasper the Master who scores the winner.
- Result: Belgium win on penalties
The final
Belgium v Netherlands
The Dutch-speaking rivalry returns for one last showdown between the two countries bare of any mountain peaks.
Belgium pull ahead as Evenepoel whips out one of his world-class performances to deny the Dutch any sniff at glory. Wout van Aert claims the Man of the Match award, even if he was outgunned by the high-pressure performer Mathieu van der Poel, who takes home the golden cleat.
Tim Wellens lifts the trophy and Belgium becomes the champions of Europe – even if they haven’t won a cycling European Championship road race title since the event was revived ten years ago.
- Result: Belgium wins Euro 2024
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