Cyclist
Cyclist’s Tour de France predictions 2024
It’s almost time for the big one, the Tour de France returns this weekend with what could be an all-time classic. It could also be a dud.
While most people will freely admit they don’t know what will happen over the next three weeks, we’ve got a collection of bozos who think they know better. Is this year’s Tour de France predictable? Only time will tell. Leave your abuse in the comments please.
Martin James, production editor
Our selections are laid out in the order they were submitted this time, and Martin was first to submit his picks. That means he gets the plaudits should his picks come through.
Yellow jersey: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
The predictable choice, yes, but the Slovenian was just so far superior at the Giro that even if riding back-to-back Grand Tours does see him drop down a notch or two from the level he was riding at a month ago, events at Itzulia Basque Country at the start of April probably robbed his closest challengers of any real hope of stopping him completing a Giro-Tour double.
Green jersey: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
Philipsen has kept a relatively low profile this season outside of his impressive form in the spring Classics, but the defending green jersey is the clear favourite again this year and, with plenty of stages to target, should be a comfortable winner again this year.
Polka dot jersey: Tadej Pogačar
Another boring choice arguably, but if Pogačar does win the GC, there’s every chance he’ll claim the mountains prize too – just like he did at the Giro.
White jersey: Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers)
The Spaniard showed his calibre by finishing fifth last year, and if he doesn’t have to sacrifice his own GC prospects to play domestique, he has the strength in the mountains to edge out some strong competition in the likes of Matteo Jorgenson and Remco Evenepoel.
Wild card: One and done for Cav
There’s more than enough counting against Mark Cavendish getting stage win #35 this year. His age, for example, not to mention general form and… let’s face it… common sense. And yet such has been the nature of so many of the Manx Missile’s successes over his long career that it’s almost for precisely these reasons that I’m backing him to do it. And if he does, I reckon he’ll retire on the spot. The moment would deserve nothing less.
Pete Muir, editor
Pete’s picks are normally a poisoned chalice, but after he got the Giro winner right he’s feeling confident.
Yellow: Tadej Pogačar
Third time lucky – I plumped for Pogačar the last two Tours and got egg on my face. This year he’s going to do it. He’s in amazing form, his main rivals don’t look to be fully fit, and he has a team of stars who will deliver him to stage victories on a velvet cushion.
Green: Jasper Philipsen
The safe choice. Scanning the team lineups there just doesn’t seem to be another sprinter who can hold a candle to Philipsen when he’s got the finish line in his sights. Bryan Coquard? Dylan Groenewegen? Even arch rival Fabio Jakobsen (DSM-Firmenich-PostNL) hasn’t looked on song at all this year. Still keeping my fingers crossed for one Cavendish stage win, however.
Polka dot: Stevie Williams (Israel-Premier Tech)
Let’s pretend for a moment that Pogačar isn’t simply going to scoop this jersey on the way to GC (at least he’s not eligible for the white jersey any more). Welshman Williams is having a great season, climbs like a gecko, loves to get in a break and will have no realistic GC aspirations, so the climber’s jersey will be a tempting target.
White: Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates)
The Spanish wunderkind will be on shepherding duties for Pogačar, but that means he’s likely to be at the pointy end of every mountain stage, racking up those youth points even as he steps aside at the last minute to let his team leader grab the glory.
Wild card: UAE to sweep the podium
Even Team Sky in their pomp couldn’t field a squad with the depth of talent of this UAE Emirates team. Pogačar, Ayuso, Adam Yates, João Almeida, Marc Soler, Pavel Sivakov, Tim Wellens, Nils Politt… it’s essentially a team of team leaders and the biggest problem they’ll have is deciding who doesn’t get to stand on the podium at the end. Move over Visma-LAB, there’s a new boss in town.
Ewan Wilson, staff writer
Ewan is currently reeling from Scotland’s Euro 2024 performance, so he’s looking for easy victories here.
Yellow: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma Lease a Bike)
Yes, I know Tadej Pogačar is the best rider in the world. Yes, I know his team is terrifyingly strong. And yes, I am aware that Jonas is coming into this Tour de France from a hospital bed. It all points towards Pogačar taking the winner’s fruit bowl, but I believe in Jonas Vingegaard.
In this blueprint, the reigning champion will seize the Tour de France in the final three stages. The former fishmonger will leave a wavering Pogačar behind in the final Alpine battles before smashing stage 21’s time-trial. Rising from the ashes, Vingegaard clutches the crown with a stage win and a third yellow jersey in Nice’s Place Masséna on 21st July.
Green: Jasper Philipsen
Jasper Philipsen is undoubtedly one of the fastest sprinters in the world. The 2024 Tour is to his advantage given that his fastest rivals opted for the Giro instead of the Tour. Therefore, it feels like a no-brainer to choose Philipsen. To keep the crowds happy, I’d like to see Cavendish win the record-breaking stage, mostly so the debate can be settled and we can collectively stop harping on about it. I am not delusional enough to pick Cavendish for the maillot vert on the other hand.
Polka dot: Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious)
Part of me is tempted to give this to either Pogačar or Vingegaard. However, Ciccone proved last year that targeting the polka dot jersey is no dying art. To follow in his footsteps, breakaway brains and great climbing legs will be necessary. For this, look no further than stage winner last year Pello Bilbao. From Bahrain Victorious’s perspective, it should be worth sacrificing a ninth place in GC for this extra prize and the hefty cheque that comes with it.
White: Carlos Rodríguez
Pogačar is now a pensioner and therefore too old to compete for the kiddies’ prize. The obvious heir to his throne is Remco Evenepoel. However, his characteristic meltdowns in stage races have continued in 2024 and this gives me little encouragement to back him for a chance at the podium. Instead, I have a first-class ticket on the Carlos Rodríguez hype train. The Spaniard has been consistent and Ineos rarely miss the top five at the Tour.
Wild card: There won’t be any French stage wins.
French hopes at this year’s Tour de France have all the vigour of a stale baguette. There is a void in sprinting and serious French GC ambitions seem punctured at the moment. It is also likely that the French breakaway escapees will be eclipsed by their continental colleagues. I desperately want Bruno Armirail (Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale) to prove me wrong, but I get the feeling that cycling is not coming home.
Laurence Kilpatrick, staff writer
We all laughed at Laurence when he picked Dani Martínez to win the Giro, and we’re still laughing because he was never going to win it.
Yellow: Tadej Pogačar
Not that I’d wish injury on any athlete, but Vingegaard’s spell on the sidelines has at least added a modicum of spice (perhaps horseradish, since that goes with fish) to proceedings. A fully fit fish robot would have put Pog to the filleting knife, but alas, the tufted one has used the pleasant warmth of the Giro to loosen his legs and will continue to steamroller his so-called ‘peers’ with a big sadistic grin on his face. Sit back and allow greatness to penetrate your retinas.
Green: Jasper Philipsen
If I could pick Cavendish I would, but I can’t handle the sniggers. Jasper is hella fast and I can’t see past him or that lovely kit. Plus Alpecin will be giving him as many resources as he needs thanks to the lack of a proper GC contender.
I’ll admit that sprinting doesn’t really light my fire in the way that high mountain clashes do, but what does get me going is unscheduled cross-team collaboration to facilitate the writing of fairy tales.
I’ve got my fingers crossed for a lead out train of Geraint Thomas, the Yates brothers, Fred Wright and Jake Stewart catapulting Cav to a totally unexpected and totally expected record-breaking victory for Britannia and the Missile.
Polka dot: Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers)
In light of my staggering prescience at predicting Dani Martínez’s renaissance at the Giro, it seems only smart to dip back into my bag of enigmatic South Americans and see what happens.
Well what do we have here? It’s the mercurial Colombian Egan Bernal, the artist formerly known as ‘the dominant future of road cycling’ who hasn’t done much dominating of late.
I don’t know what homework he’s been set by Petrol Tractor FC but maybe once they see the faith I’ve put in him, this altitude gobbling imp will be let off the leash to right the wrongs of the fallow years.
White: Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep)
I’m not Remco’s biggest fan but I think this might be the year when the little bastard becomes a slightly more decorated bastard in the biggest race of them all. There is some spicy competition so, unlike my other predictions, which are all correct, this one remains TBC. There’s a good chance that his time-trialling will be so despotically good that the other parvenus wilt in the heat.
Wild Card: G gets a W
Call me crazy, but I think Geraint Thomas might actually win a stage. Did you know that one of the UK’s finest ever road cyclists has only won seven stages, ever. And only three in grand tours. (Don’t @ me time-trials).
Surely, it’s time. When he’s not hobnobbing with TLB (see above) or recruiting podcast guests on the start line, maybe G will use this swan song booze cruise as a way of bridging the six-year gap since his last TDF win. If he can stoically cling on to GC groups as he has done at the previous two Giros, then surely he’s got a stage in those pale Welsh legs.
Robyn Davidson, editorial assistant
Robyn famously struggles to not pick favourites in her predictions, so get ready for another snoozefest.
Yellow: Tadej Pogačar
Tadej Pogačar heads into the Tour de France after winning the Giro d’Italia on his debut, prompting whispers (read: very loud shouts) of him being the first man to complete the Giro-Tour double since Marco Pantani in 1998.
Jonas Vingegaard will try his absolute best, but the crash at Itzulia Basque Country was horrendous and Visma-Lease a Bike just announced Sepp Kuss is out. Meanwhile Pogačar has Adam Yates and João Almeida for company; the duo just ran rings around everyone at the Tour de Suisse, finishing 1-2 on the podium and winning numerous stages.
Green jersey: Jasper Philipsen
I will not forgive the Tour de France or Skoda for changing the points jersey from bright green to the dark colour it is now, so I don’t know who would want to wear it, but I see Jasper Philipsen defending his title in this classification.
Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny) is another name to think about in his maiden Grand Tour, having recently won the Belgium National Road Race Championship. He should be entertaining to watch, but ultimately Philipsen will be stronger.
Mountains jersey: Guilio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)
I could put Tadej Pogačar here, because it’s a sensible choice, but I don’t want to. So I’m going to say like Philipsen, Ciccone will defend his jersey at this year’s Tour de France. Lidl-Trek don’t have a GC focus after Tao Geoghegan Hart was ruled out with Covid, so stage-hunting is the name of the game, especially when the gradients start increasing.
White jersey: Carlos Rodríguez
Youngsters, rejoice. Tadej Pogačar is now too old for the white jersey. I have been anticipating Carlos Rodríguez’s Tour de France for some time now, even writing about him in my underdog feature and his chances on general classification. While I don’t think he’ll win the maillot jaune, the young rider jersey is his for the taking, and he’ll get a decent finish on GC to boot.
Wild card: Vibes Classification
The Vibes Classification will return for the Tour de France. It was recently seen at the Giro d’Italia where Giulio Pellizzari (VF Group-Bardiani-CSF-Faizanè) won ahead of Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal-QuickStep).
At last year’s Tour, Victor Lafay (Cofidis) topped the Vibes Classification standings for his breakaway victory that ended Cofidis’s 15-year win drought, fell in the ITT and took it all in his stride, meme’d himself by comparing it to bowling pins, and crashed while eating. He won’t be at the start line this year to defend his title so the Vibes Classification is wide open…
Will Strickson, website editor
Don’t panic, we’re not all as boring as those clowns.
Yellow: Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates)
Forget Pantani, remember Chris Froome. The last time a rider had the chance to do the Giro-Tour double was in 2018 when Froome did the unthinkable at the Giro and then looked primed for the double. He would’ve done it too if it weren’t for Geraint Thomas finding the form of his life. Cue 2024. Pogačar Giro. Yates form of life.
This Tour is going to be a game of chess. Pogačar will be firing at the start and tiring towards the end, while Vingegaard will be riding into form to peak for the decisive final few stages. In trying to get Visma on the back foot Yates will repeat 2023 and take an early lead, so Pogačar is free to sit on a Kuss-less Vingegaard until he cracks, but once that happens, is Yates deliberately losing time to gift his team leader yellow? I don’t think so.
Even more recently than Froome, this is Vingegaard 2023. The Dane won the Tour and was set to waltz to the Vuelta victory when Sepp Kuss found himself in the race lead. Remember how that played out.
Green: Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny)
Uh oh disasterclass incoming. There are a couple of Belgian sprinters coming to the Tour this year. One of them is the national champion. Arnaud De Lie recently beat Philipsen to that title, this guy has it.
It’s his first Grand Tour, so no one really knows how he’ll go, but he is going to make a huge name for himself when he robs his compatriot of several stages and the green jersey while hauling his Lotto team back into the WorldTour. The Bull of Lescheret is here to stay.
Polka dot: Jonas Vingegaard
While he’ll be firmly out of contention after getting dusted on the gravel stages this man is no quitter. Once he lets go of GC for the Yates show to begin, Vingegaard will turn his attention to winning the hardest stages and let’s face it, who’s going to stop him. Cime de la Bonette? More like Been there Donette.
White: Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates)
Let’s not kid ourselves. Once Vingegaard’s out the way it’s full steam ahead to a 1-2-3-4 for UAE, and just one of them still qualifies for this competition. Ayuso is one of the youngest riders in the race but he already has a Grand Tour podium to his name and that was nearly two years ago. He’ll have to ride into the race after crashing out of the Dauphiné but once he’s going he’ll have CRod and Remco on tostada.
He’ll then win the Vuelta while Pogačar sulks his way to an Olympics and Worlds double.
Wild card: The lads clean up
This year’s Tour de France has the most British riders of all time (thanks and solidarity to Cillian Kelly for that stat), and it’s a bunch of blokes brimming with brilliance. In a quite frankly unbelievable feat of domination – and an utter nightmare for Sports Personality of the Year voters – every single one of them will win a stage. Here me out.
Cavendish, easy. Adam Yates, see 2023. Simon Yates, bound to win a big one in his final run out for Jayco-AlUla. Fred Wright, it’s due, easy dub from the breakaway. Tom Pidcock, descent finish from the Galibier. Geraint Thomas, one last hurrah. Ben Turner, gravel stage is calling. Oscar Onley, breakthrough mountain victory. Stevie Williams, due a big one in the season of his life. Jake Stewart, Israel-Premier Tech will deliver a Dowsett-style breakaway win with the Brit pairing up with Guillaume Boivin to double-team an easy day. Dan McLay, underrated beast, Arnaud Démare will throw a paddy early doors and the East Midlands’ own will pull off a career-defining sprint win.
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