Cyclist
Who are the favourites for the men’s World Championships Road Race 2024?
The crowning moment of the cycling season, the World Championships will conclude this weekend with the men’s road race on Sunday 29th September in Zürich, Switzerland.
At a total length of 273km with 4,470m of elevation gain, this course is akin to Liège–Bastogne–Liège (which has roughly 4,300 metres of elevation gain). Therefore, this should be a race for the Ardennes specialists, albeit on a route a couple of hundred kilometres away from the Belgian hills.
Mathieu van der Poel will come back to try to retain his title. After winning the rainbow jersey in Glasgow’s George Square last year, Van der Poel is unlikely to keep the jersey with the stiff opposition of Tadej Pogačar and Remco Evenepoel on the startlist. With the ultimate rainbow-coloured prize on the line, the roll call at this year’s World Championships is packed with Grand Tour champions, Monument winners and real contenders for a medal.
So with all that in mind, who do the bookmakers peg as the favourites to win the 2024 World Championships Road Race? Here are some of the most hotly-tipped riders.
Tadej Pogačar, Slovenia
Top of our list – and probably everyone’s list – is Tadej Pogačar. The Slovenian has been dominating the 2024 cycling calendar. He’s claimed a Monument, two Grand Tours and a bunch of stage races and Classics. Everything points towards another Pogi show in Switzerland.
The course suits him well, but any course does. 2km in length and at a 6% gradient, the crucial climb on the route is the perfect springboard for Pogačar. He’s also got the appropriate kick on him to win it from a reduced sprint. Even last year, he defeated Mads Pedersen at the end of a long day of racing.
I don’t think we’ve ever had a rider more worthy of winning the rainbow jersey than him. Don’t forget, if he does win it all, Pogačar would also seal the Triple Crown after his Giro-Tour double earlier this year.
Rating: 5/5
Remco Evenepoel, Belgium
Winner of this event back in 2022, Remco Evenepoel will undoubtedly be one of the men to watch in Zürich. Bear in mind, this course is harder than the one he triumphed on two years ago. However, Evenepoel is a climber who is unlikely to be taking tight stock of elevation gain figures.
His team will support him well we would imagine. Tim Wellens and Tiesj Benoot are likely to play leading roles in this race. Wellens, in particular, could be a strong second card if things don’t quite go to plan for Evenepoel.
Remco’s exploits at the Olympic Games last month may serve as a cautionary tale for what’s to come. That said, it’s rare that someone can follow him when he’s on one of those days. However, we haven’t quite seen how Tadej Pogačar would react to the long-distance Remco effort. Maybe the Slovenian is the only person who can block Remco from taking another rainbow jersey.
Rating: 4/5
Marc Hirschi, Switzerland
Oh, Marc Hirschi. The Swiss rider has had quite the career so far, and he’s only just turned 26.
Hirschi is on an impressive streak at the moment. He has won the past five races that he has taken part in. Not even Pogačar has done that this season. Yes, some of the races are a little ‘Mickey Mouse’, but this streak includes wins at the WorldTour Bretagne Classic and Klasikoa San Sebastian.
Hirschi has been giving us glimpses of his old form this summer. He’s looking sprightly in the hills and his top-end kick seems to be back. Four years ago, he claimed a medal in the road race. Perhaps he can add another one to his collection this year before he heads to Tudor Pro Cycling in the winter.
Rating: 3/5
Pello Bilbao, Spain
Spain will be led by Basque rider Pello Bilbao. The Bahrain Victorious rider has been a little underwhelming over the past six months. A blunt Tour de France and an anonymous August have been turned around in the past week following two top ten placements in Québec and Montréal. At the latter, he claimed a podium place behind winner Pogačar.
Bilbao also held his own in Montréal to keep the gap steady between himself and Pogačar out in front. Given how similar that race is to this, I wouldn’t be too shocked if we see him on the final podium in Zurich.
With his strong climbing legs, willingness to attack and race-savvy mind in one-day races, Bilbao is a strong each-way bet for the podium. Don’t forget about his kick as well, he’s easily one of the better sprinters amongst the climbers.
Rating: 3/5
Primož Roglič, Slovenia
A former Liège–Bastogne–Liège winner himself, Primož Roglič will start as Slovenia’s second-best chance of scoring the rainbow bands.
The Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider is coming straight from a Vuelta victory and he will have spent more time on the roads given that he raced the time-trial as well. The climb suits Roglič and he has a strong sprint on him from a reduced bunch.
If you’re worried about an internal power struggle in the Slovenian camp, don’t be. Roglič and Pogačar have worked closely before on the Slovenian national team. They collaborated at the 2020 World Championships and have a close personal connection. If Pogačar isn’t up to the job – which he surely will be – Roglič is a sure enough contender for the final podium.
Rating: 2/5
Matteo Jorgenson, USA
Matteo Jorgenson has been one of the revelations of the 2024 season. In winning Paris-Nice and coming just a couple of seconds away from the Critérium du Dauphiné’s yellow jersey, Jorgenson has become one of the most marked men in the peloton.
Jorgenson rode a strong race in Montréal last weekend. He was active at the front of the race and visible even after Pogačar decided to fly off the front. He also impressed at the Olympic Games. This should come as no surprise. The American has finished in the top ten at the Tour of Flanders, Tour de France and E3 Saxo Classic. As one of the perennial figures in top tens this year, he will surely be at the pointy end of affairs on Sunday.
The Idaho-raised rider will be backed up by Neilson Powless and Quinn Simmons. Together with Brandon McNulty, the American team will be one of the strongest on the startline in Zürich.
Rating: 2/5
Richard Carapaz, Ecuador
After a feisty Vuelta a España, Richard Carapaz enters the World Championships as the leader of Ecuador’s team. A GC rider who has all the capabilities to hang on and even rustle some feathers on this course, Carapaz is a name to keep in mind when making predictions about Sunday’s road race.
Carapaz showed some real signs last Autumn that he’s a strong one-day racer, particularly at this time of year. We also can’t overlook his palmares-defining win at the Olympic Games three years ago in Tokyo when Carapaz demonstrated his racecraft in an international event.
There’s no Jhonathan Narváez for support in the Ecuadorian squid, but that shouldn’t hinder Carapaz’s chances to taste success this weekend.
Rating: 2/5
Mattias Skjelmose, Denmark
This might be a long shot, but Mattias Skjelmose was on a sharp upward trajectory towards the end of the Vuelta.
The Dane was also a standout rider in the previous two editions of the World Championships. Last year, he broke up the peloton in preparation for a big filtration, while the year before he escaped away and almost made it onto the final podium. His riding style suits the Ardennes-esque course too.
Don’t overlook Denmark.
Rating: 1/5
Adam Yates, Great Britain
Lastly, we have to include Adam Yates of Great Britain.
He may have only raced one Classic this year – and that was the Muscat Classic in Oman – but he is a solid pick for success in a race like this. As a UAE Team Emirates rider, Yates knows Pogačar more than most in the bunch and he might be able to read the situation better than his competitors.
The Bury-born rider won the GP Montréal last year, a telling sign that he might be a dab hand at these kind of races. He will also be supported by a strong lineup featuring his brother Simon and the recent Tour of Britain winner Stevie Williams, who could also get a surprise result in Zurich.
Rating: 1/5
Cyclist‘s prediction
If Tadej Pogačar doesn’t win, it will feel like a missed opportunity. Everything is pointing towards a Slovenian victory and a chapter closed on the once unthinkable triple crown feat. For that, I have to back Pogačar for the rainbow bands. Barring incident, he’s the man to beat.
In the fight for second, I’m feeling a strong showing from Remco Evenepoel. I know his recent form at the Tour of Britain wasn’t convincing, but he might be the only rider to come close to Pogačar in a long-range attack.
I’m feeling partial to choosing Marc Hirschi for the podium. His recent results have really impressed me and he’ll have extra support from the home crowds.
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