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Cyclist’s way too early Tour de France 2025 predictions
The 2025 Tour de France route was revealed yesterday, with headlines including a mountain time-trial to Peyregudes, a return to Mont Ventoux and a hellish day in the Alps culminating in a summit finish on the high-altitude Col de la Loze.
Looking more broadly, next year’s parcours kicks off in Lille up in the northeast of France. The opening stages offer plenty of chances for the yellow jersey to change hands with sprint stages, punchy finales and a time-trial wedged in between on Stage 5. The second week of racing will see three Pyrenean mountaintop finishes back to back. From there, the Tour moves eastwards towards the Alps via Mont Ventoux before two final summit finishes at the Col de la Loze and La Plagne. After its Olympics-forced omission from the 2024 Tour, Paris is back on the map and will host the (likely) processional show closer.
Given that we now know where the Tour de France is going next year, let’s reach for Cyclist’s cursed crystal ball. In this wildly early list of prognostics, we’ll predict how each of the 21 stages will go, plus who will be the winner of all four jerseys and the final GC podium.
Tour de France 2025: Who’s going to be there
I think it’s safe to say that we can expect the top three finishers from this year’s Tour to appear in Lille for the Grand Départ in 2025. With no Giro on his agenda next year, Tadej Pogačar will try to defend his Tour title – of course, barring incident or injury. Someone who might be a Giro starter, on the other hand, is Jonas Vingegaard, but Visma-Lease a Bike directeur sportif Grisha Niermann has already shared that the Tour will be his main objective. Following a successful Tour debut last year, meanwhile, Remco Evenepoel will be the protected rider in the QuickStep line-up.
Elsewhere, Primož Roglič has also confirmed that the Tour will be on his 2025 schedule, although he dodged the question of whether it will be his core objective for the year or not. Vuelta runner-up Ben O’Connor will take the lead role at Jayco-AlUla at next year’s Tour and Carlos Rodríguez will most likely lead Ineos Grenadiers during their ‘rebuilding season’.
Wout van Aert will likely return to the Tour to reprise his role as domestique-cum-stage hunter. The first week suits him down to a tee and he has a real chance to claim the maillot jaune early on. His rival Mathieu van der Poel, however, is subject to rumours suggesting that he might skip the Tour in favour of a return to the mountain bike and a run-out at the Vuelta a España. Biniam Girmay, the reigning green jersey holder, also confirmed at the route presentation that he will aim to come back to the Tour in 2025.
In terms of sprinters, the picture is slightly unclear. That said, the chance for them to pull on the yellow jersey shouldn’t be snuffed at. Jasper Philipsen has been at the Tour for the past four editions, so he should be in attendance in Lille. He was at the route reveal in Paris so that hints at a return to the race. Jonathan Milan might make his Tour debut – he worked in tandem with Mads Pedersen in the latter half of the 2024 calendar, so this might have been a test run for the upcoming Tour. Tim Merlier is likely to be side-tracked for Evenepoel’s GC helpers like this year, while a lack of DSM climbers could open the door to Fabio Jakobsen returning to the Tour.
Predicting every stage of the 2025 Tour de France
The race organisers are yet to publish the full profiles of all the stages. These predictions are based using the information we know so far.
Stage 1: Saturday 5th July, Lille Métropole – Lille Métropole, 185km
The Tour kicks off with a flat stage for the first time since 2019 or 2020 – that depends on what you consider a sprint stage to be. The strongest sprinters in the bunch should wrestle their way through the chaos so I’d pin my hopes on Philipsen or Milan.
Opening stages are often chaotic, however, and rarely go to plan. The door could be open to a surprise stage winner à la Mike Teunissen in 2019. For this, consider longshots Gerben Thijssen or Arnaud De Lie. They’d need to show some improvement during the first half of 2025 before I can confidently back their chances though.
Cyclist prediction: Jasper Philipsen
Stage 2: Sunday 6th July, Lauwin-Planque – Boulogne-sur-Mer, 209km
Stage 2 is bound to end up like a Classic. The final 10km are undulating and filled with three spiky climbs. This includes the approach to the line, which will be at a 4% gradient. With that, I can say pretty confidently that the yellow jersey will change here – I can’t see Philipsen or Milan making it to the line at the front of affairs.
Van Aert will be expected to lead the bookies’ odds, the finale suits the Belgian’s skills well. Girmay and Van der Poel could spoil the party, particularly the Eritrean who will have the advantage on this 4% drag to the line. If you’re looking for historic parallels, Pogačar won on a similarly punchy finale in Longwy back at the 2022 Tour. The final climb of that day has the same statistics as this one.
Don’t count out the chance of a group of attackers who may roll the dice over the final set of climbs.
Cyclist prediction: Wout van Aert
Stage 3: Monday 7th July, Valenciennes – Dunkerque , 172km
We re-enter familiar flat territory here. The exposed finale to Dunkerque could force some echelons, but this is optimistic. It’s always hard to predict how the wind will blow.
The flattest stage outside of Paris, Stage 3 will come down to the likes of Philipsen and Milan again. If Jakobsen is back on top form, this is the kind of stage he could thrive on, however, his move to DSM seems to have hindered his ability to contest top-level sprints. Likewise, Dylan Groenewegen might be able to claim another Tour win here.
Cyclist prediction: Jasper Philipsen
Stage 4: Tuesday 8th July, Amiens Métropole – Rouen, 173km
It’s another bumpy profile on Stage 4 to Rouen. The hardier sprinters and optimistic puncheurs will be licking their lips at the chance to add a Tour stage onto their resumé.
The ramp up to Saint-Hillaire at 6km to go should whittle down some of the sprinters. I wouldn’t count on Pedersen or Girmay to hang on. Instead, this looks like a job for Van Aert. He’ll be able to follow any crucial moves that go off over the penultimate climb and the 5% ramp up to the finish is no problem for him. Likewise, this might be Girmay’s best chance at winning a stage at the 2025 race.
If De Lie is on the startline, I wouldn’t count him out either.
Cyclist prediction: Biniam Girmay
Stage 5: Wednesday 9th July, Caen – Caen, 33km (ITT)
It’s unknown this far out which time-trialists will be at the Tour next July. With three time-trials potentially on offer at the Giro d’Italia, the likes of Filippo Ganna and Josh Tarling might be deterred from entering the 2025 Tour.
The three most recent Tour time-trials have gone the way of GC favourites. Look deeper and we see that 70% of the individual time-trials in the past seven Tours de France have been won by riders contesting the yellow jersey. History favours the overall favourites.
There’s an obvious suspect for victory in Caen in Evenepoel. The double World Champion and Olympic champion is one of – if not the – strongest rider against the clock in the current peloton. He claimed a maiden Tour win last year in a time-trial of a similar distance and I believe he could end up in the maillot jaune by the end of the day.
Cyclist prediction: Remco Evenepoel
Stage 6: Thursday 10th July, Bayeaux – Vire, 201km
Stage 6 is a bit of a wildcard stage through the deceiving Norman hills. Among the six categorised climbs on the day, two will come in the final 10km. They’re hardly Alps, but it could rule out the chances of the sprinters, particularly with the 10% average slope in the final 700m.
Can I say something boring? This one looks pretty safe for Pogačar. He’s the strongest sprinter amongst the climbers and he thrives on finales like this.
Other contenders for this stage could include Van Aert and Van der Poel. As for the latter, I have been underwhelmed by Van der Poel’s recent appearances at the Tour. He’s also not sure whether he’ll actually do the race next year. This opening week might be too tempting to miss, however.
In terms of the overall standings, I doubt QuickStep will want to lose the yellow jersey here, so brace yourselves for another doomed breakaway.
Cyclist prediction: Tadej Pogačar
Stage 7: Friday 11th July, Saint-Malo – Mûr-de-Bretagne, 194km
We cross the Mûr-de-Bretagne twice in the final 20km. You’re forgiven for having déjà vu, this was the case back in 2021 when Van der Poel claimed his first and only Tour stage win to date.
The ‘wall of Brittany’ is 2km at an average of 6.9%. This is pretty tough, but the lull in between the two climbs could neutralise any chance for a thrilling Classics finale like I expect on Stages 2, 4 and 6.
Regardless, this might be the best chance for a breakaway in week one. To keep things exciting, however, I’ll say that the galacticos will go fist-for-fist again in the finale, much like in 2021. On that day, Pogačar and Roglič shone in the wake of Van der Poel.
Cyclist prediction: Benoît Cosnefroy
Stage 8: Saturday 12th July, Saint-Méen Le-Grand– Laval, 174km
We leave Brittany on Stage 8 and move into the bowels of western France. This part of the world is often home to your typical Tour sprint stage characterised by a small hopeless breakaway, swooping aerial camera shots of farms and a pretty formulaic finale. I’ll go on record to say that this will be the most boring stage of the 2025 Tour – a bold claim, I know.
The arrival into Laval might be on a false flat like at the 2021 Tour de France. The Espace Mayenne is at the top of a 3% slope through Laval town centre, so I’d say this could favour the hardier sprinters. Much like he did in Limoges in 2023, I see Pedersen taking stage honours in a powerful run to the line.
Cyclist prediction: Mads Pedersen
Stage 9: Sunday 13th July, Chinon – Châteauroux, 170km
Châteauroux is a city with a rich Tour pedigree for sprint finishes. This should continue into 2025. If they aren’t bored of striking out for glory by now, Philipsen and Milan will be the men to watch. The Belgian finished in second here back in 2021.
Who knows though? Mark Cavendish has won in Châteauroux three times during his Tour career. If he does decide to race another Tour, it could be another fairytale send-off. I mean, that’s a real long shot though, I personally can’t see him getting back onto the pro bandwagon for another season.
Cyclist prediction: Jasper Philipsen
Stage 10: Monday 14th July, Ennezat – Le Mont-Dore, 163km
The Bastille Day stage will be the toughest in the extended first week of racing. Clocking up 4,400m of elevation gain, we can expect this to be the first chance for the climbers to taste success.
This is unlikely to be the most consequential wider GC picture so a breakaway could go all the way. If they play their cards right, an escapee could end up in the yellow jersey by the end of the day. Perhaps an unthreatening GC rider who limited their losses in the time-trial. Think of a Kévin Vauquelin or Neilson Powless type.
As for the GC contenders, this stage will be tense. It could end up like Stage 11 of the 2024 Tour which also took place through the Massif Central. We might, therefore, see the GC contenders pull off some long-range moves after a relatively stunted first week for them.
Cyclist prediction: Neilson Powless
Stage 11: Wednesday 16th July, Toulouse – Toulouse, 154km
A short steep climb within the final 10km could derail the chances of the sprinters on Stage 11, but I think they’ll be hungry to take what could be their only realistic chance in the second week. Philipsen has proved that he can hold on over short kickers. I suspect that he’ll be the favourite to win in Toulouse.
On the other hand, given that few flat stages in the first week are likely to end in a breakaway victory, the escapees might have a chance here. Usually, there’s at least one flat stage that falls into the hands of a lucky break. This could be a candidate.
The peloton is often a little sluggish after a rest day. The bump in the profile could hinder the peloton’s chase behind and a breakaway may marginally manage to stay out in front by the time the race returns to Toulouse. Kasper Asgreen, Alberto Bettiol, I’m looking at you.
Cyclist prediction: Alberto Bettiol
Stage 12: Thursday 17th July, Auch – Hautacam, 181km
No disrespect to Stage 10, but this is the first proper mountain stage of the 2025 Tour.
I expect the breakaway to be highly motivated. The first big points will be offer in the KOM standings and a stage win could be up for grabs.
Behind in the GC group, I think they’ll let the breakaway grow out to a hefty lead over the first 100km of flat roads. The Col du Soulour won’t be too influential, it’s the first heavyweight climb of just two in the whole stage. This will surely help the chances of the lead group making it all the way to the line.
Vingegaard won on Hautacam in 2022. That was after three weeks of attritional racing and a much harder day. I do think the Dane will have a slight advantage here, however UAE Team Emirates might have more personnel left over to take control up the early slopes. Gaps are likely to be small in my opinion. Stages 13 and 14 will be the decisive days in the Pyrenees.
Cyclist prediction: Aurélien Paret-Peintre
Stage 13: Friday 18th July, Loudenvielle – Peyregudes, 11km (ITT)
A mountain time-trial? What is this, 2020? Well, this time we’re not at La Planche des Belles Filles and we’re far from being at GC crunch time.
Peyregudes is a tough climb, particularly in the final 3km. We saw this in 2022. With that in mind, Stage 13 should favour Pogačar and Vingegaard far more than the time-trial world champ Evenepoel. I suspect that the two previous Tour winners will put around one minute into Evenepoel here. This kind of stage could also throw up some wild results so look out for domestiques or on-form breakaway riders in the top 20.
Mountain time-trials often create pretty serious time gaps in the GC. This stage is, therefore, set to be the first major shake-up of the 2025 Tour.
Cyclist prediction: Tadej Pogačar
Stage 14: Saturday 19th July, Pau – Superbagnères, 183km
The jewel in the Pyrenean crown this year, Stage 14 could be the most exciting watch of the 2025 Tour de France up to this point.
Team tactics are sure to affect the race dynamic. Satellite riders could play into the equation, particularly over the final two climbs of the Peyresourde and Superbagnères. I expect this to be a long-range tussle between Pogačar and Vingegaard in this case. Given that the day before is only 11km in length, they should be amped up and ready to fight.
The final climb could suit either one of them. If one of the Yates brothers is there – remember, Simon has signed for Visma – then that could change the outcome. I don’t think Evenepoel is familiar to this Tour de France rhythm we’ve become so accustomed to over the past two years, and with a weakened team, he might be caught out.
I’m cautious to forecast a breakaway victory given that this is the last chance for the GC riders this week and the escapees have a strong chance the following day to Carcassonne.
Cyclist prediction: Tadej Pogačar
Stage 15: Sunday 20th July, Muret – Carcassonne, 169km
Stage 15 is a paint-by-numbers transitional day. I fully anticipate a breakaway to make it all the way to the end. Especially after the trinity of Pyrenean stages, the fatigue will be setting in. UAE Team Emirates and Visma-Lease a Bike will need a rest.
The profile is fairly open, but the final climb of the Pas du Sant (5km at 7%) is not to be underestimated. To make it in a breakaway on a stage like this, you need to be a real tactician with some decent climbing legs. Michał Kwiatkowski, Matej Mohorič, Pello Bilbao and Magnus Cort are some of the names that sprint to mind on a profile like this.
As for the peloton, they’ll roll home around ten minutes in arrears all chit-chatting – an easy day out for them.
Cyclist prediction: Magnus Cort
Stage 16: Tuesday 22nd July, Montpellier – Mont Ventoux, 172km
The return of the Mont Ventoux will fuel many ambitions on Stage 16. It’ll be a bun-fight to get into the day’s breakaway given the grandeur of a Mont Ventoux stage win. However, I expect them to be brought back in on the slopes around Chalet Reynard as the superteams motor onto their final helpers.
This will be a battle between Vingegaard and Pogačar, no doubt. As we saw in 2021, the climb suited Vingegaard well. Now a couple of years older and more experienced, I’d give home the slight upper hand. He thrives on long brutal drags like this.
Vingegaard takes the day and limits some of his GC deficit. For a moment, it feels as though the Tour isn’t a done deal.
Cyclist prediction: Jonas Vingegaard
Stage 17: Wednesday 23rd July, Bollène – Valence, 161km
This will be the sprinter’s fist chance in over a week, and the last chance to bag a stage win before Paris. If the green jersey is close, then that’ll only motivate the peloton even more. However, sandwiched between two mountain stages, the hopes of the break will be high. I imagine that they’ll get caught late on and a sprinter will take the honours.
Hello, Jasper Philipsen? The Belgian usually grows in form at the Tour and I expect this to be another win for him. He’s poached wins in the final week in two of the past three Tours and his Alpecin team will have fresh few goals in the surrounding mountain stages.
Cyclist prediction: Jasper Philipsen
Stage 18: Thursday 24th July, Vif – Col de la Loze, 171km
History suggests that Pogačar is not the biggest fan of the Col de la Loze. He shed time to Roglic up here in 2020, and in 2023 he completely exploded on the climb. We also have evidence from previous Tours that Pogačar can fall into difficulty on longer climbs. At 26km, there aren’t many climbs longer than this.
What I’m trying to say here is that Vingegaard has a real chance to make some real in-roads on the Slovenian on Stage 18. Factor in that Visma’s yearly altitude camps take place around the corner, I think that gives him an edge. The string of climbs building up to La Loze will most likely mean that teammates will be of high importance.
I suspect a breakaway has little chance of making it. If you want a name to throw out there, though, Santiago Buitrago could thrive on the high altitude.
Cyclist prediction: Jonas Vingegaard
Stage 19: Friday 25th July, Albertville – La Plagne, 130km
Based on vibes more than anything, I think Stage 19 swings in Pogačar’s favour. The long steady final climb isn’t too dissimilar from the Isola climb he smashed this year. Therefore, I expect that UAE Team Emirates will control this stage in a mechanical fashion. The reigning champion could squeeze more seconds out of his rivals here and consolidate his Tour lead.
However an escape group could have a shot at taking the win atop La Plagne, the first winner on this climb at the Tour in 20 years. This will be the last chance to earn KOM points, so they should have this day underlined in their diaries.
Cyclist prediction: Guilio Ciccone
Stage 20: Saturday 26th July, Nantua – Pontarlier, 185km
I hate to be a Debby Downer, but this is a bit of a dud of a penultimate stage. Maybe I’m missing something, but ending on a typical barroudeur stage is a bit of an anti-climax for the Tour de France, especially when the viewing figures are at their highest.
After the fatigue of the Pyrenees, I suspect the GC guys will accept their fate. That said, the profile is Evenepoel-friendly. If he wants to make his way up the GC pecking order, there’s a climb suitable for a long-range move at around 50km to go. Otherwise, there isn’t really an opportunity for Vingegaard to make any last-ditch attempts to unseat Pogačar.
This probably won’t be enough to reel in the breakaway. Expect Matej Mohorič to shine on a profile like this.
Cyclist prediction: Matej Mohorič
Stage 21: Sunday 27th July, Mantes-la-Ville – Paris (Champs-Élysées), 120km
This stage is poised for a big Pogačar attack on the exit of the Tuilerhies tunnel. Vingegaard might be tempted to follow and we could see a real two-up battle for the ages.
OK, in all seriousness, I think we know what we’ve got in store for this Champs Elysées arrival.
Typically, the fastest sprinter in the world wins here. Fit of this reputation, Philipsen has on the Champs Elysées once before. Milan would also suit a straight-line drag to the line – that is if he improves his positioning over the next couple of months. The added fatigue of three weeks of racing can sometimes throw up some surprises. For this, Alexander Kristoff can usually bear the brunt of the mountains, as can Pedersen.
Cyclist prediction: Jasper Philipsen
The GC podium and jersey predictions
In my opinion, this route suits Vingegaard more than the 2024 parcours. The Visma leader should relish the return of the Col de la Loze and Mont Ventoux. These will prove to be two big opportunities to gain time on Pogačar. On the other hand, I don’t think that’ll be enough to surpass him. If Vingegaard does ride the Giro as rumours suggest, that will only hamper his chances. Nonetheless, I reckon the time gap between the two will be a lot smaller than in 2024. Elsewhere, the remaining slot on the podium looks like a shoo-in for Evenepoel.
To me, the green jersey should be a battle between Philipsen and Van Aert. The two previous winners have plenty of stages that suit them. Van Aert should thrive in the first week with its buffet of punchy finales. He’ll most likely score points in the time-trial in Caen and the selection of rolling breakaway stages could offer a chance for him to spring out of the pack and hunt points. I’m not saying it’s nailed on for Van Aert, however. Philipsen has at least seven stages that suit his strengths. He’s proved in the past three seasons that he is one of the fastest men around and his Alpecin-Deceunick team won’t need to sacrifice team support to chase this goal.
As for the white jersey, Evenepoel should be the overwhelming favourite. In his final year of eligibility (if my maths is correct), the Belgian could add another jersey to his collection.
The polka-dots are far harder to predict. This is often the case at Grand Tours given that breakaways are dictated by the ongoing GC situation and the luck of the break. The number of points on offer on Stages 14, 18 and 19 should give the escapees a good chance of grabbing the most unique of the four jerseys. However, the mountain time-trial and four other summit finishes could mean that the balance of power could swing into the hands of Pogačar and Vingegaard much like it has in the 2020s so far.
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