Cyclist
Tom Pidcock will leave Ineos Grenadiers: Where could he be off to next?
Tom Pidcock will leave Ineos Grenadiers after four seasons with the British team, it was confirmed yesterday. The news follows months of speculation surrounding a potential divorce between Pidcock and Ineos following his deselection from the team’s lineup for Il Lombardia in early October.
In the announcement confirming the news, Ineos Grenadiers CEO John Allert said, ‘Tom has some big multi-disciplinary goals and we believe this decision enables both of us to pursue our future ambitions with clarity, purpose and determination.’
With the two parting ways, this now allows the two-time Olympic champion to secure his future elsewhere. Given that Pidcock was amicably released by Ineos, this can unfold without any legal complications.
Q36.5 Pro Cycling are expected to win the battle for Pidcock’s signature next year. Reports of a move to the second-division Swiss team were reported just after the initial flare-up between Ineos and Pidcock at the beginning of October. However, no announcement has been given yet as to whether he will actually sign. This leaves some doors open, though only for a limited time with the deadline to make it onto a new team looming.
The potential teams
Now that Pidcock has been released by Ineos, the door has flung wide open to any other deals (in theory, at least).
At this point in the season a fair share of teams have already filled up their rosters, which are limited to 30 riders at the UCI WorldTour and ProTeam levels. Similarly, a handful of teams won’t have the resources to shell out for a new rider this late on into the year, particularly one on Pidcock’s reported six-figure contract. Finally, some teams have already grouped their riders together at pre-season team camps. This doesn’t completely rule out a transfer, but does make it more unlikely.
Factoring in all three of these pointers, we are left with a few options for 2025.
Some teams have already reported some interest in acquiring Pidcock, chiefly Q36.5 Pro Cycling as already mentioned. A couple of those who previously had rumoured links to Pidcock have been taken off the table: both Lidl-Trek and Israel-Premier Tech have now filled their rosters for next season, while Visma-Lease a Bike, typically a hub for multi-disciplinary riders, have now had their first full training camp for new recruits ahead of next season.
WorldTour teams with space in 2025:
- Alpecin-Deceuninck (1 spot remaining)
- Arkéa B&B Hotels
- Astana Qazaqstan
- EF Education-EasyPost (1 spot remaining)
- Groupama-FDJ
- Intermarché-Wanty
- Movistar Team
- Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe
- Team DSM-Firmenich-PostNL
- Visma-Lease a Bike (1 spot remaining)
- UAE Team Emirates (1 spot remaining)
Q36.5 Pro Cycling
When the initial rumours of Pidcock’s departure circled in the autumn, Q36.5 Pro Cycling quickly emerged as the most likely destination. At this point, the Swiss-registered team is expected to be the future home of the reigning Amstel Gold Race champ. Some transfer gurus have hinted that this suspected move will be confirmed in the coming days.
Maybe an unfamiliar name to some, Q36.5 Pro Cycling is headed up by Doug Ryder, formerly of Team Dimension Data and the other iterations of the Qhubecka WorldTour project.
In its current form, the squad has only been around for two seasons. Despite its recent formation, Ryder’s team has bolstered its lineup with plenty of former WorldTour riders. These names include 2020 European champion Giacomo Nizzolo, David de la Cruz and Damien Howson along with new arrivals Emīls Liepiņš and Sjoerd Bax. Q36.5 isn’t close to contending for WorldTour promotion in this current points cycle, but an advancement onto the top flight of cycling could be possible in 2028 when the next round of promotions will take place.
In terms of their place in the cycling hierarchy, they currently sit on the second echelon of ProTeams. They are yet to ride a Grand Tour, which appears unlikely to change in 2025 at least. On the other hand, they received invites to Paris-Roubaix and the Tour of Flanders earlier this season. On top of that, they were granted access to Strade Bianche as well as the Tour de Suisse, Tour de Romandie and Itzulia Basque Country in 2024.
If Pidcock is looking to find an out-and-out leader’s role, Q36.5 would be an ideal place to try that out, especially in a week-long environment where he has seen some growth in recent years. On the other hand, Pidcock’s hopes of riding a Grand Tour might become a fleeting prospect at Q36.5. The second-tier of professional cycling is the most competitive it’s been for years and it’s becoming tougher to outmuscle the likes of Tudor Pro Cycling, Uno X and the historic wildcard teams from Italy and France. However, his ambitions of winning a Monument – a goal he shared on the Cyclist Magazine Podcast last week – could be ignited at the cobbled Classics if Q36.5 continue to receive invites from those big one-day races.
On a business note, Pinarello might be a crucial stakeholder in this transfer. Pidcock is currently one of the brand’s big ambassadors, helping it to improve its cyclocross and mountain bike framesets. Pinarello and Q36.5 have someone in common, Ivan Glasenberg. The South African billionaire has shares in both the professional cycling team and Pinarello following an acquisition last year. If Pidcock were able to keep up his affiliation with Pinarello, that could be a huge factor in securing this deal.
Likewise, Q36.5’s close ties to blue-chip sponsors and private investors could come in handy and help the squad secure a last-minute marquee signing like Pidcock. Even in the team’s previous form, Team Dimension Data, they developed a knack for securing the names of top-level riders despite a lack of historic results. Therefore, Pidcock moving over to that team might not be as unlikely as it might seem.
Likelihood: 8/10
Advantages:
- Negotiations have already taken place between Q36.5 and Pidcock’s inner circle
- Potential ties to Pinarello
- Clear-cut leadership role in the Classics and stage races
- Wildcard invites to the Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix and Strade Bianche
Disadvantages:
- Pidcock’s future would be outside of the WorldTour ranks
- Unlikely to get Grand Tour wildcards
- A weakened squad around him to support key race objectives
Astana Qazaqstan
Astana Qazaqstan will undergo a change of identity at the end of the year. The team will change its name to XDS-CarbonTech and ride under a Chinese licence. With this, it is expected that the budget of the team will increase thanks to the big cash injection promised by carbon fibre manufacturer XDS.
In anticipation of this, the team has brought on board the expertise of former Ineos riders Dario Cataldo and Pete Kennaugh in the role of directeurs sportif as well as former Hour record holder Alex Dowsett in a performance role. On top of the new staff signings, the squad has swept up some top-tier riders during this year’s transfer window, perhaps hinting at bullish ambitions for 2025.
Astana Qazaqstan will be the future home of Classics stars of old in the form of Diego Ulissi and Wout Poels. They’ve also enlisted the support of Sergio Higuita and made the mid-season signing of Alberto Bettiol to help in the spring races. Overall, Astana might become one of the most exciting Classics teams to watch in 2025 if these transfers are anything to go by. With Pidcock on board, he might have the right level of support to nurse another big Ardennes win like Flèche Wallonne or even Liège-Bastogne-Liège if he’s feeling ambitious.
This rumour has picked up some momentum, but it’s still fairly unlikely to come to fruition. It’s very unlikely that Pidcock would be able to bring across his Pinarello partnership to XDS given that the team will be sponsored by a bike manufacturer next year. Furthermore, Alexander Vinokourov’s project has some unfamiliarity when it comes to multi-disciplinary riders, so this might be a sticking point when it comes to contract negotiations.
However, Mark Cavendish’s success with the team has proved that Astana can help steer an unlikely partnership to great success at the WorldTour level. Cavendish could speak Italian at least, which remains the team’s lingua franca. Pidcock might have to do some quick Duolingo classes in preparation for the new season if bets on the Astana horse.
Likelihood: 3/10
Advantages
- British ties in the staff room
- A bolstered Classics squad could be inticing for Pidcock
- WorldTour level (at least for 2025)
- Financial opportunity to break into the Chinese market
Disadvantages:
- Astana have spent a lot this year already on transfers
- The new Chinese bike provider might be a roadblock
- Pidcock would have to move into a multi-lingual environment
Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe
The move to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe is the most logical one commercially given that Pidcock is already a Red Bull athlete – albeit Red Bull UK. We’re not sure how close the cycling team are to Red Bull’s sporting superstructure, so it’s unclear how significant that existing partnership would influence contract negotiations. We’re not even sure if the money has hit Ralph Denk’s balance sheet yet either. That said, the team have been quite generous with its spending over the past twelve months, signing plenty of top-tier riders, including a mid-contract deal that allowed Primož Roglič to jump ship to the German squad last year. It has also been widely reported that the team hopes to become one of the sport’s biggest outfits with a rumoured budget just shy of €50million.
They have worked closely with multi-discipline riders too and the team’s bike sponsor Specialized also provides all the equipment necessary for Pidcock’s off-road pursuits. This could be a fruitful deal for Specialized who could help to leverage the transfer, even if that means some ironing out of the current contract between Pinarello and Pidcock. And he has ridden Specialized bikes in his pre-Ineos years.
If Pidcock were to move to Red Bull, he would join a growing Classics contingent that comprises new recruits Oier Lazkano, Laurence Pithie and the Van Dijke twins. If he wants to renew his stage race ambitions, he would have to compete against a stacked GC roster that boasts four-time Vuelta champion Roglič and 2022 Giro winner Jai Hindley.
By joining Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, Pidcock could find himself in a very similar situation to the one he wriggled out from at Ineos. By that, I mean that he would once again be sidelined in favour of other star riders. There are simply too many leaders in Denk’s squad already, and his name recognition in the UK is unlikely to garner preferential treatment. This appeared to be an issue at Ineos, particularly at the 2023 Tour de France if Netflix’s Unchained is to be believed.
Likelihood: 3/10
Advantages:
- Existing links to Red Bull
- Role within a major WorldTour team
- Ability to compete in multiple disciplines
Disadvantages:
- Unlikely to become the leader in the Classics or Grand Tours
- A new deal would have to be agreed with Specialized, ending Pidcock’s ties to Pinarello
Less likely options
Pidcock’s release from Ineos comes late in the season, so some teams have already filled up their rosters and budgets for the new year. In this section, we’ll discuss some of the more unlikely links that could emerge out of this Pidcock break-up, whether they have foundations in existing negotiations or not.
Visma-Lease a Bike
Visma-Lease a Bike emerged as a potential option a couple of weeks ago. These initial rumours weren’t formally confirmed – they came as a result of some transfer speculation – but the ties make sense. Pidcock would fit into Visma-Lease a Bike’s multi-discipline approach. They already have the expertise of Wout van Aert nailed down on a lifelong contract. On the women’s side, the recent signing of fellow former Ineos rider and Olympic MTB champ Pauline Ferrand-Prévot highlights the squad’s broader ambitions.
To add, Pidcock’s commitment to Red Bull – as a sponsored athlete – would be no problem at Visma-Lease a Bike. The team already boast Red Bull athlete Van Aert who has managed to balance his ties to both the Dutch team and the Austrian energy drink giant.
On the other hand, the yellow-clad super team have already had their first pre-season camp. There the squad’s new recruits mingled with the existing set-up, including high-profile signing Simon Yates. This already makes the transfer less likely. That said, Cian Uijtdebroeks was in a similar position last year and was sent out to the squad’s training camp in unbranded clothing before his deal was officially wrapped up.
Likelihood: 1/10
Lotto
Lotto – who will be dropping Dstny from their name in 2025 – are another squad that should really consider this transfer opportunity. They’re expected to return to the WorldTour at the end of 2025 and are already guaranteed invites into the Grand Tours and Monuments.
As for the Belgian team’s transfer window, they’ve recently lost Maxim Van Gils to a similar late-season release. This might have freed up some cash and a leadership position to be filled in the Classics. Similarly the loss of Caleb Ewan last year and the more recent departure of Florian Vermeersch mean that the team require a new leader in some regard.
Out of all these unlikely destinations, Lotto is the one I could see functioning the best – just as long as Arnaud De Lie and Pidcock agree to divvy out Classics duties. Don’t forget, Pidcock can speak Dutch pretty well and he already spends much of his winter in Belgium.
Likelihood: 1/10 (but he should really consider this)
Any other takers?
For this final entry, we’ll weigh up the teams with open slots for 2025 that would also welcome the possibility of Pidcock continuing his cyclocross and mountain biking calendars.
When adding in this caveat, we’re left with Alpecin-Deceuninck, Groupama-FDJ, Intermarché-Wanty and Unibet-TDT. Out of these options, Intermarché and Unibet-TDT can be ruled out due to financial constraints. Therefore, we’re only left with two remaining candidates.
Alpecin-Deceuninck would likely see Pidcock follow a similar plan to Mathieu van der Poel who also competes in the same events during the winter months. Given that Alpecin-Deceuninck have renewed Philipsen’s contract and already utilise Van der Poel as the squad’s figurehead for brand deals, this might not be as natural of a fit as you might think. I’m also doubtful that they would have the financial resources needed to pull this off.
Elsewhere, Pidcock’s younger brother Joe was a member of Groupama-FDJ’s development squad for several seasons. Consequently, there might be a link between the Pidcock family and the team. I hold my reservations though, I don’t think a French team would be a cohesive pairing for the eldest Pidcock going forward. It’s also unlikely that Groupama-FDJ would be able to match Pidcock’s salary given the team’s inability to keep on French star Lenny Martinez who was signed to Bahrain-Victorious on a much heftier paycheque.
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