Cyclist
Cyclist’s alternative pro cycling predictions 2025
There are only two weeks to go until the 2025 pro cycling season kick starts at the Tour Down Under in Adelaide. With a fresh set of Monuments, Grand Tours and jerseys waiting to be won, now is the ideal time to make our predictions ahead of the new calendar.
Tadej Pogačar has revealed his programme already. He’s set to compete in the Tour de France and Vuelta a España with a return to the cobbled Classics on the cards. Otherwise, Remco Evenepoel will join the Slovenian at the Tour de France alongside Jonas Vingegaard and Primož Roglič, who are both rumoured to be starting the Giro d’Italia. As for the women’s peloton, all eyes will be on the Tour de France Femmes. It’s likely that we could find the first repeat Tour winner this summer as Kasia Niewiadoma and Demi Vollering are set to reprise their roles as GC contenders.
We’re not here to speculate who will win the Tour de France and the rainbow jersey, however. Our rather cracked crystal ball will help us forecast some of the season’s biggest headlines, storylines, wild transfer sagas and outlandish race winners of the year.
Primož Roglič wins the Giro d’Italia (then crashes out of the Tour de France)
The 2025 Giro d’Italia may offer the one chance for riders to compete in a Grand Tour without the looming presence of Tadej Pogačar. I say maybe because the reigning champion hasn’t confirmed his Grand Tour programme yet, but plenty of reporters in Italy seem to believe that he’ll let someone else take home the Trofeo Senza Fine in favour of hunting a first Vuelta crown in September. The Giro, therefore, promises to be the most open three-weekers this year with a Grande Partenza set to take place across the Adriatic in Albania.
Already confirmed to be attending the Balkan opening of the Corsa Rosa are Juan Ayuso and Primož Roglič as well as new Visma recruit Simon Yates. The most bullish in their plans – pun very much intended – are Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, who have podium finishes from the three previous Giri enlisted for support at the race. Roglič, the 2023 champion, will be flanked by 2022 winner Jai Hindley and 2024 runner-up Dani Martínez as well as best buddy Jan Tratnik.
Two or three time-trials are expected to feature on the Giro route. This should favour Roglič, but what he should have in his favour is Grand Tour experience and strong team support. Ayuso is still somewhat untested at leading UAE Team Emirates XRG in a three-week-long race. Although his talent has been displayed quite emphatically, the young Spaniard may come unstuck by Roglič’s experience and fatigue resistance.
Regardless of his Giro success, Roglič will fail to break his curse at the Tour de France this summer. In the hectic opening week running alongside the English Channel, the newly crowned Giro champ will suffer a crash that will see his race end, but not after a heroic battle against doctor’s orders.
Only one Slovenian can claim rights to the Giro-Tour double.
Tudor Pro Cycling receive a Tour de France wildcard
The second division of professional cycling is quite possibly at the highest and most competitive level it has ever been. Grand Tour stars and Monument champions have spread themselves out and a handful have opted to take on the challenge of riding for a ProTeam over the past seasons. Just take a look at Tom Pidcock, Michael Storer and Alexander Kristoff for instance. With this tier of the pro sport becoming ever more crowded, the race for Grand Tour wildcards is tighter than ever.
It’s widely expected that Uno X will ride the Giro d’Italia given the absence of ProTeams – and safe promotion contenders – Lotto and Israel-Premier Tech. The Scandinavian team, therefore, has a rite of passage into the Italian race. Despite a run of two successful Tour de France wildcard appearances in 2023 and 2024, Uno X’s position at the Tour de France could be jeopardised as a result of this as well as competition from new rivals on the second tier, namely Tudor Pro Cycling.
The Swiss team were busy in last year’s transfer window, scooping up a host of former WorldTour riders including former World Champion Julian Alaphilippe. As France’s biggest cycling entity, Alaphilippe’s name power alone should give Tudor Pro Cycling the upper hand when it comes to a Tour de France wildcard bid. The squad isn’t a one-man show – far from it. Tudor Pro Cycling boast a roster that includes former Grand Tour stage winners Matteo Trentin, Alberto Dainese, Michael Storer and the enigmatic Marc Hirschi. If they field their top dogs to the Tour, Tudor could start as one of the strongest teams on the start-line in Lille.
Jonathan Milan wins big at the Tour de France
In 2024, Jonathan Milan stepped up onto the top tier of sprinters after having signed with Lidl-Trek in the winter of 2023. At the Giro, he won three stages and the points jersey, backing up his record from the previous year. Elsewhere in the calendar, the Italian sprinter scored victories at Tirreno-Adriatico, the Renewi Tour and the Deutschland Tour. Milan beat almost all of the key player sprinters at least once this year, including Jasper Philipsen, Tim Merlier and Dylan Groenwegen. In terms of raw power, Milan is among the best.
This year, the Lidl-Trek rider is rumoured to be setting his sights on a Tour de France debut. Backed up with a strong sprint train including Milan’s right-hand-man Simone Consonni, all hands will be on deck for the Italian to stage hunt and perhaps eye up a bid at the maillot vert. Throw in the support of the experienced Jasper Stuyven and two-time Tour stage winner Mads Pedersen and it’s clear that Milan is in good company.
The opening stage of the Tour is flat, suiting Milan’s capabilities if it comes down to an expected bunch sprint in Lille. With this, there’s a good chance that Milan could be in yellow after his debut stage. If it doesn’t work out in Lille, there’s a total of seven flat stages that could come down to a collective dash to the line.
If you’re looking for historic parallels, I expect Milan to make as strong of an impression on his debut Tour as similar sprinter Marcel Kittel in 2013, or more recently Fernando Gaviria in 2018 when he claimed the opening stage on debut.
Anna van der Breggen fails to refind her winning legs
One of the most intriguing storylines in the women’s peloton is the return of Anna van der Breggen. After retiring after the 2021 UCI Road World Championships in Belgium, the Dutch rider has spent the past three seasons as a directeur sportif for SD Worx. However, during 2024, the former Giro winner announced that she would return to the peloton in 2025.
Van der Breggen isn’t unique in making a comeback. The disgraced Lance Armstrong came back at a similar age in the late 2000s. He failed to refind his ‘winning form’. In the women’s peloton, riders often take a year out to have children, but they have rarely reached their level from before.
Neverthless, the SD Worx returnee will turn 35 in the spring, so it’s unlikely that she’ll be physically stronger than when she was winning Grand Tours and world titles five years ago. Similarly, it’s unknown just how hard she has been training while working as a directeur sportif. Yes, she’s been spotted out on rides with the team, but her job is to sit in the team car and deliver tactics instead of racing in those high-pressure situations herself. She’s out of the loop and I think it’ll be tough to jump back in at her age.
Her initial retirement in 2021 came before the inaugural Tour de France Femmes, so that likely plays a factor in this decision to return to the pro peloton. Whether she’ll be the leader there or not is still up for debate, but she will start the race as one of the most respected names regardless. However, I’m not convinced this prestige of old will translate into big GC wins during 2025.
Matej Mohorič wins a cobbled Classic
Already a Monument winner, Matej Mohorič is one of the few riders able to rival the seemingly untouchable bracket consisting of Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert and Tadej Pogačar on a one-day course. This was perfectly displayed by his excellent victory at Milan-San Remo in 2022.
Although his results have been consistently positive at the hilly Monuments of Milan-San Remo and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Mohorič has had an on-off relationship with the cobbled Classics in recent years. There’s certainly room for improvement in these races and the Bahrain Victorious rider is aware of this having filled his programme with cobbled Classics over the past two years.
In 2022 he came close to the podium of Paris-Roubaix, ultimately finishing in fifth place that day. This result inspired him to target the race in 2023, only for him to finish in 29th place. When it comes to the Tour of Flanders, Mohorič has a patchy record despite it being a Monument well-suited to his strengths. He has abandoned the past two editions and failed to crack the top 20 in his two other finishes.
Although the cobbled Monuments are the holy grail of one-day racing, I see Mohorič as a contender on a course like the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, E3 or Dwaars door Vlaanderen. All three of these races are on his packed programme for 2025 alongside another bid at the Tour of Flanders in April. Out of these options, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad leans itself towards a calculated Mohorič move while Dwaars door Vlaanderen often offers a chance for an underdog winner. Crucially, neither Mathieu van der Poel nor Tadej Pogačar are due to enter these races, so the door is open for another Slovenian to take up the mantle.
FDJ-Suez finish on the podium at all three Grand Tours
There’s been quite the transfer shuffle in the women’s peloton coming into the 2025 season. Over the winter, several of the sport’s biggest names have switched teams, spanning former World Champions, Grand Tour winners and Classics stars. Out of this personnel rejiggle, FDJ-Suez have emerged with some of the most promising recruits in terms of their GC and Classics objectives.
The French team have signed the 2023 Tour de France Femmes champion – and arguably the best GC rider at the moment – Demi Vollering. The Dutch rider will lead the squad at the Grand Tours next year alongside fellow recruit Juliette Labous, a former Giro podium finisher herself. Sprinkle in the expertise of world-class climber Évita Muzic plus the versatile Elise Chabbey and the French squad’s stage race ambitions are in good stead.
As a former winner of both the Vuelta Femenina and the Tour de France Femmes, there is a fair expectation that Vollering could win both races again. Provisionally, the two competitions feature in her schedule and quite frankly it would be naive to bet against her. With stronger team support and squad cohesion, FDJ-Suez should be nailed on for a Grand Tour or two in 2025. Add on Labous’s strong Giro record and we could be in for another FDJ-Suez podium there in Vollering’s absence.
Altogether, FDJ-Suez have a real chance to make the podiums of all three Grand Tours, not only courtesy of Vollering and Labous, but perhaps Muzic too. The plucky French climber thrived at the Vuelta last year and she could find herself in an even more lucrative GC position while supporting her team leader.
Keep an eye on Enric Mas and Stefan Küng in the transfer market
Now I wanted to throw at least one early-year transfer prediction into the ring. As much as I’d like to forecast the hottest move of the 2025/26 transfer window, I’m doubtful that it’s going to be a busy year for transfer negotiations.
For the men, there are only a couple of marquee names with contracts expiring at the end of the 2025 season. Among those facing a contract year, many are over the age of 32. These riders include Adam Yates, Primož Roglič, Nairo Quintana, Mikel Landa and Stefan Küng. Some younger riders that could, in theory, be open to a move include Mads Pedersen, Enric Mas and Olav Kooij.
Given that the majority of riders on the market this year will be over 30 years, I think this year is going to be quite strategic as teams look to sign riders capable of bringing in experience and versatility. On the other end of the spectrum, there will be a strong focus on recruiting younger underutilised talents, for instance Kévin Vauquelin and Mathias Vacek.
However, you’re here for the big name signings. Here’s one for you: Enric Mas to Bahrain Victorious. The Balaeric rider’s contract expires this year after a remarkable five year stint in Movistar colours. Although he is the team’s biggest name, Mas might want to spice things up a little after so many years spent in the Spanish team’s set-up. Looking at the likes of the Yates brothers, they made similar moves at a similar age, both with the aim of finding new fortunes in a fresh environment. Unlike the aforementioned twins, I don’t think Mas is going to sign to a team like UAE Team Emirates XRG or Visma-Lease a Bike. Instead, I think he’ll be content on a team like Bahrain-Victorious.
After a torrid season, Bahrain have been quietly restructuring their GC hopes. Damiano Caruso isn’t getting any younger and Lenny Martinez might not be experienced enough to lead a Tour de France squad. Likewise, Santiago Buitrago lacks that special something to anchor a Grand Tour podium bid. The team, therefore, offer a real chance for Mas to grow in an environment with stronger team reinforcement.
If one name wasn’t enough, I’m also going to throw a name out there and say Stefan Küng signs for Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe. He slots into the team set-up well and he would be an experienced rider to have on board for the Classics. He was previously rumoured to be leaving the team during the summer of 2022 with rumours pointing towards a potential move to Picnic-PostNL. Now that the cycling landscape has changed quite drastically, Red Bull feels like a natural fit for the Swiss rider.
Cédrine Kerbaol wins Milan-San Remo
2025 is exciting for women’s cycling. Not only is this due to the comeback of Anna van der Breggen, Demi Vollering’s move to FDJ-Suez and Kasia Niewiadoma‘s attempt to back up her Tour success, but this year will see the first edition of a women’s Milan-San Remo (at least in its modern form).
Given that we’ve never seen the women’s peloton take on the course of La Classicissima, it’s going to be a bit of a lottery predicting the outcome of the debut edition of the race. Fairly, many will point towards Lotte Kopecky, Elisa Balsamo and Marianne Vos – all of whom are valid bets given their strength on hilly profiles and in the sprints. However, the men’s race has become notorious for its unpredictability and chaos. You can imagine that this will be replicated by the women too.
With the daredevil run down from top of the Poggio, the final kilometres of the race favour brave descenders. Baring this in mind, I’m going to say that Cédrine Kerbaol manages to slip away on the downhill and holds on to take victory on the Via Roma. As a strong descender and not necessarily a marked rider, she has a good chance to escape off the front without ringing the bells of SD Worx or Lidl-Trek.
Following her late-season move to EF-Oatly-Cannondale, the Breton puncheur will now be nestled within a strong Classics set-up flanked by the likes of Kristin Faulkner – a solid candidate for victory herself – and Kim Cadzow. Rocking the iconic pink of EF, Kerbaol is bound to find a burst of form in the Classics.
One of the big three crashes out of the Tour de France
This seems like a cursed prediction, but crashing is a necessary evil in the sport of cycling.
Cynically speaking, it’s been a while since an A-list Tour de France contender crashed out of the race during its opening week. That is, of course, with the exception of Primož Roglič (who we’ve already predicted to crash out of the French race).
Cast your minds back to the 2010s and we often saw at least one podium candidate crash out early on. Think of 2014 when we saw both Chris Froome and Alberto crash out, or 2017 when Richie Porte and Alejandro Valverde abandoned before the first rest day.
Since 2022, the first week of the Tour has featured decisive GC stages early on in the race, creating a hierarchy and a relatively tame peloton dynamic within the opening handful of days. This is in quite stark contrast to Tours of old when a nervous peloton would be ripped apart by a number of heavy pileups during a mountain-free opening nine days.
The 2025 route, however, serves up an opening week that resembles the crash-scarred Tours of the 2010s. With this, it could be littered with crashes and chaos. Although the top riders have become a lot more vigilant in their positioning, I predict that one key contender will come a cropper early on. I’ll be more specific and declare that either Remco Evenepoel, Jonas Vingegaard or Tadej Pogačar gets caught out and is forced to abandon the race.
Ineos Grenadiers will change name (or fold)
I can’t exactly claim that Ineos Grenadiers are going to face financial difficulty this year. They’re a team backed by one of the UK’s richest people and are part of a wider sporting network that includes the likes of Mercedes F1 and Manchester United. However, I do think that Ineos will go through a major identity makeover towards the end of 2025. Whether this is a change of sponsorship or a complete folding, we will find out.
Despite the big financial backing from Ineos and the substantial budget that comes with it, the team don’t have a plethora of sponsors like their WorldTour rivals, including the state-backed squads like Bahrain Victorious and UAE Team Emirates XRG. Bike provider and sponsor Pinarello are almost certain to move over to Q36.5 at the end of the year thanks to the ties between the brand’s owner Ivan Glasenberg and the Swiss team’s signing of Pinarello posterboy Tom Pidcock. They might stay with Ineos, but if there’s some uncertainty, they have an escape plan. Therefore, it’ll take a big-name backer, or maybe an oil-rich nation, to prop up Ineos’s rumoured budget of around €50million per year.
This is all to say if team owner Jim Ratcliffe pulls the plug, then Ineos could fold (or at least change form quite drastically). The Ratcliffe-backed Manchester United is currently facing some major restructuring with results and morale slumping there as a result. I suspect Ineos could face a similar fate going forward if they don’t tackle their downturn head on. Unlike Manchester United though, Ineos Grenadiers don’t have the financially lucrative reputation as the world’s most famous football club to fall back on.
All in all, the monopolised sponsorship deal of this squad may be its own downfall, so keep your eyes on how Ineos reimagine themselves in 2025.
Remco Evenepoel linked to Red Bull (again)
We’re not done with transfer speculation. After another year of Remco Evenepoel rumours, the link between himself and Red Bull-Bora-Hangrohe resurfaced in 2024, this time with more legitimacy. According to some sources within the German team, a €10million offer was tabled for the Belgian’s signature. This lead to some serious suspicion that Evenepoel considered breaking his contract with Soudal-QuickStep two years early.
Out of all the big riders, Evenepoel is perhaps the most likely to leave his current team. Soudal-QuickStep don’t have the same finances as some of cycling’s big superteams such as UAE Emirates XRG, Visma-Lease a Bike or Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe. Soudal also offer weak Grand Tour support with the contracts of key supporters Ilan Van Wilder and Mikel Landa still to be extended past 2026. Factoring all this in, a move makes sense, even if this would mean breaking his contract early by one year.
To add, Patrick Lefevere will step down as CEO of the QuickStep project at the end of 2025. This might fracture some of the close-knit ties between Evenepoel and his current team, although this is all superfluous speculation.
In terms of Red Bull-Bora-Hangrohe, we expect the Red Bull cash injection to really take place over the next year. The team were pragmatic in revealing the extent to which this deal has pumped up their balance sheet, but we believe that the Red Bull partnership will come into full effect in 2025. Primož Roglič, the team’s current talisman, is up for a contract renewal at the end of 2025. If they manage to renegotiate that contract, some extra cash might be allocated to attract Evenepoel. With bolstered GC support elsewhere at Red Bull, there might be some real temptation for Evenepoel to jump ship to Ralph Denk‘s squad in 2026.
Regardless of whether this happens or not, expect more loose transfer speculation to surround Evenepoel’s future. Lord knows Ineos Grenadiers need a new leader after all, especially once Geraint Thomas hangs up his cleats.
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