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Who are the favourites for the Giro d’Italia 2024?
The Giro d’Italia 2024 will get underway this weekend on Saturday 5th May with a hilly opening stage from Venaria Reale to Turin. La Corsa Rosa – ‘the pink race’ in Italian – will supply three weeks of compelling racing throughout Italy, starting in the Piedmont, and finishing in Rome.
Two time-trials grace this year’s route, totalling a sum of 71.6km against the clock. Five classified mountain stages and a gravel stage through Tuscany will make this Giro d’Italia a testing odyssey for the GC contenders.
So, who is expected to challenge for the Giro d’Italia general classification and who are the dark horses?
Giro d’Italia 2024 favourites
Tadej Pogačar
The current runaway favourite with the bookmakers, Slovenia’s Tadej Pogačar has already taken seven race wins this year, including the week-long trial at the Volta a Catalunya. Whether you’re a fan of ‘witnessing greatness’ or not, we have to be in awe of Pogi’s aggressive and relentless energy at Grand Tours. On Giro debut this year, Pogačar will make his presence known early with a favourable opening couple of stages in the Piedmontese Grande Partenza.
A time-trial in Perugia towards the end of the first week will also give the Slovenian a chance to gain an early advantage over his rivals. If this isn’t enough, a return to Prati di Tivo the day after will yield Pogačar a chance to replicate his stage win here from Tirreno-Adriatico back in 2021.
Rating: 5/5
Ben O’Connor
One rider leading the charge behind Pogačar will be Western Australia’s Ben O’Connor. Already a stage winner on the UCI WorldTour level in 2024 at the UAE Tour, O’Connor is hitting his stage-racing prime at the age of 28.
Fourth place finisher at the Tour de France in 2021, and a Giro stage winner at the 2020 Covid edition, O’Connor has Grand Tour pedigree. Impressively, he has reached the top five in each of the three stage races he has taken part in this year. An upward trajectory in form points towards a lucrative move onto the Giro podium. Alongside the in-form Paret-Peintre brothers, O’Connor’s Decathlon-AG2R team will be well-oiled ahead of the Corsa Rosa.
Rating: 3/5
Daniel Martínez
Back in 2021, Dani Martínez made a big splash at the Giro. He piloted Egan Bernal through a final-week wobble and snuck into the top five in his own right. This year, he will be gunning for glory for his new Bora-Hansgrohe squad.
Grand Tour results since 2021 have been lacklustre, but the Colombian can never be counted out. A real Russian roulette kind of rider, Martínez might be one of the only riders capable of rattling Pogačar. It was him, after all, who dethroned Remco Evenepoel earlier this year at the Volta ao Algarve.
Rating: 3/5
Damiano Caruso
The adopted Sicilian stormed the 2021 Giro d’Italia, landing a place on the final podium. A fourth place last year may have slipped under the radar behind the close fight for the maglia rosa, but Caruso has some real panache when it comes to the Giro d’Italia. A Swiss Army Knife in the Grand Tours, Caruso can hang in there when the race goes uphill, and he is a proven package against the clock.
Bahrain Victorious have been struggling in 2024. Without a big win and a lower-table ranking in the UCI points standings, Caruso will have a lot of pressure at the Giro. The 36-year-old will be supported by the upcoming Italian prodigé Antonio Tiberi and the Norwegian talent Torstein Træen.
Rating: 3/5
Geraint Thomas
2018 Tour de France champion Geraint Thomas enters the ring as Ineos Grenadiers’ leader. Bound for an ambitious Giro-Tour double in 2024, Thomas was just seconds away from Giro glory in 2023.
The Welshman’s form this year has not been convincing, but his veteran status in the Grand Tours hints at a reliable return to form at the Giro – much like last year. With the support of an improving Tobias Foss and wonderkid Thymen Arensman in the mountains as well as Pippo Ganna in the flat, Thomas’s team could rival the flexxing UAE Team Emirates squad.
Rating: 3/5
Romain Bardet
Romain Bardet has shown some positive signs of form this year already – culminating in a second place at Liège-Bastogne-Liège. On top of a strong Giro record in the post-Covid years, Bardet has a strong chance of cracking the top five at the Giro.
More mature in his attacking riding style, Bardet won’t be afraid to ruffle some feathers in the podium skirmish. He’ll be supported by a host of sprinters on the flat plus Chris Hamilton and Kevin Vermaerke in the uphills. The victory is likely a bridge too far, but a top three could be within his grasp.
Rating: 2/5
Alexey Lutsenko
Lutsenko promised a lot when he won the under-23 rainbow jersey a decade ago. Lately he has translated that promise into some solid top-ten performances at the Tour de France as well as a breakaway win atop Mont Aigoual. This year, the Kazakh flag-bearer will make a long overdue return to the Giro.
Lutsenko proved that he could legitimately challenge UAE Team Emirates at the Giro d’Abruzzo. After that win, he has been showing signs of good legs, particularly with an underrated top 20 at Liège. The healthy amount of time-trialling and tame mountain tests will play into the hands of Lutsenko in opposition to his lightweight rivals. Although he was a last-minute addition to Astana’s startlist, Lutsenko provides some bite into this GC field.
Rating: 2/5
The Outsiders
Reigning champions of this race, Visma-Lease a Bike, bring wonderkind Cian Uijtdebroeks to his first Grand Tour with the team following his messy break-up from Bora a couple of months ago. Einer Rubio, who won a stage last year, is likely to lead Movistar’s GC hopes. However, the return of 2014 champion Nairo Quintana could provide some intrigue following his season on the naughty step. For English hopes, Hugh Carthy will give EF something to work towards in the GC. He is a Grand Tour podium finisher after all.
The Cyclist prediction
Tadej Pogačar will gain the pink jersey early on. After a flurry of breakaway moves, he’ll lose the jersey briefly to an optimistic escapee, before reclaiming it by the mid-race mountain stages in the Apennine Mountains. From here it should be plain sailing to the end. Behind Tadej, expect a fierce battle for the podium. In continuation of the team’s early season form, Decathlon-AG2R’s Ben O’Connor will feature on the podium in some capacity. Geraint Thomas will also be making a return to the top three in unwavering fashion (as long as he stays upright, of course).
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